IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>, a Chinese EV manufacturer, will start its listing hearing for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO this week, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79449" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of development.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK), a Chinese EV manufacturer, will start its listing hearing for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO this week, according to press reports.
In Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of development.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> has announced an ATM offering to sell US$2.0 billion of ADS. The offering appears to be timed to take advantage of the share price rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>'s strong balance sheet and cash generation do not necessitate the need for the offering. The impending launch of the Li L9 underpins its prospects. </li>
<li>However, with the recent rally, the shares are at best fully valued at the last close. We prefer remaining on the sidelines for now. </li>
</ul>



Li Auto Inc. (LI US) has announced an ATM offering to sell US$2.0 billion of ADS. The offering appears to be timed to take advantage of the share price rally.

Li Auto (2015 HK)'s strong balance sheet and cash generation do not necessitate the need for the offering. The impending launch of the Li L9 underpins its prospects. 
However, with the recent rally, the shares are at best fully valued at the last close. We prefer remaining on the sidelines for now. 


SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

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SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production &amp; quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.</li><li>As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.</li><li>Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week</li></ul>

Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production &amp; quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week

President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big valuation and multiples despite on delivering its first care in 4Q21 (no revenues and burning free cash flow)</li>
<li>Lofty delivery goals provided for 2022 and 2023....already disappointing investors</li>
<li>Optimistic market share and ASP assumptions have been made by management</li>
</ul>


Big valuation and multiples despite on delivering its first care in 4Q21 (no revenues and burning free cash flow)
Lofty delivery goals provided for 2022 and 2023....already disappointing investors
Optimistic market share and ASP assumptions have been made by management


Lucid (LCID) - Is This a Lucid Investment Opportunity?

<ul><li>2021 was the year of EV Stocks, with automakers raising large sums of money without any vehicle deliveries or revenues.</li><li>Swedish EV Maker Polestar is the latest in a long list of EV makers to go public through a SPAC, but there’s more to this deal than first meets the eye</li><li>Polestar is set to make its public debut at a critical juncture in the nascent EV Market where Tesla has captured a lion’s share and the competition is struggling to scale</li></ul>

2021 was the year of EV Stocks, with automakers raising large sums of money without any vehicle deliveries or revenues.Swedish EV Maker Polestar is the latest in a long list of EV makers to go public through a SPAC, but there’s more to this deal than first meets the eyePolestar is set to make its public debut at a critical juncture in the nascent EV Market where Tesla has captured a lion’s share and the competition is struggling to scale

Polestar Is The Dark Horse in the EV Race

United States

Lucid Group Inc. operates as an automotive company. The Company manufactures luxury electric cars, as well as provides energy storage and original equipment solutions. Lucid Group serves customers in the United States and Canada.

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Lucid Group (LCID US)

Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of...

Arun George

Li Auto’s US$2 Billion ATM Offering

The offering appears to be timed to take advantage of the share price rally. The shares are at best fully valued at the last close. We prefer...

Arun George

Race to Survival

As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and...

subSPAC

Lucid (LCID) - Is This a Lucid Investment Opportunity?

Aggressive original assumptions must be recalibrated after guiding deliveries down ~35% from original 2022 guidance and pushing out the timing of...

Robert C Prather Jr

Polestar Is The Dark Horse in the EV Race

2021 was the year of EV Stocks, with automakers raising large sums of money without any vehicle deliveries or revenues. Swedish EV Maker Polestar...

subSPAC

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