Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Luckin reported C4Q24 revenue 6%/1% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11%/38% higher than our estimate/consensus, driven by SSSG recovery and cost material savings;</li>
<li>After turning around same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) via price hike in C3Q24, Luckin finetuned the cup sales to price ratio to reach an optimal point in C4Q24, </li>
<li>We upgrade Luckin from UR into BUY rating and set new TP at US$40.  </li>
</ul>


Luckin reported C4Q24 revenue 6%/1% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11%/38% higher than our estimate/consensus, driven by SSSG recovery and cost material savings;
After turning around same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) via price hike in C3Q24, Luckin finetuned the cup sales to price ratio to reach an optimal point in C4Q24, 
We upgrade Luckin from UR into BUY rating and set new TP at US$40.  


[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$40) Rating Change]: Optimum Cup Sales and Price Mix Hit the Sweet Spot

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.</li>
<li>Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;</li>
<li>The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.</li>
</ul>


We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.
Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;
The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.


Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.</li>
<li>The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.</li>
<li>Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.</li>
</ul>


China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.
The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.
Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.


CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>India-U.S. /Cover Story: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy</li><li>Asia New Vision Forum /: EV Suppliers Must Innovate and Find a Niche to Survive, Insiders Say</li><li>Military /: China’s Top Legislature Ousts Four More Generals in Widening Anti-Corruption Campaign</li></ul>

India-U.S. /Cover Story: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic AutonomyAsia New Vision Forum /: EV Suppliers Must Innovate and Find a Niche to Survive, Insiders SayMilitary /: China’s Top Legislature Ousts Four More Generals in Widening Anti-Corruption Campaign

CX Daily: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy 

China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$40) Rating Change]: Optimum Cup Sales and Price Mix Hit the Sweet Spot

Luckin's strong revenue and profit performance in C4Q24 driven by SSSG recovery and cost savings leads to upgrade to BUY rating with TP of US$40.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China. Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy

India-U.S. /Cover Story: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy Asia New Vision Forum /: EV...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$40) Rating Change]: Optimum Cup Sales and Price Mix Hit the Sweet Spot

​Luckin's strong revenue and profit performance in C4Q24 driven by SSSG recovery and cost savings leads to upgrade to BUY rating with TP of US$40.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

​Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.

We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China. Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy

India-U.S. /Cover Story: Why Modi Won’t Play Cowboys and Indians With Trump, Opting Instead for Strategic Autonomy Asia New Vision Forum /: EV...

Caixin Global

Luckin's strong revenue and profit performance in C4Q24 driven by SSSG recovery and cost savings leads to upgrade to BUY rating with TP of US$40.

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...