Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The expiry of cornerstone investors’ lock-up today modestly increases <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>’s free float, which still remains below 10%.</li>
<li>Mixue’s 1H2025 results show limited overseas scale-up, with growth driven entirely by the domestic market, raising concerns over long-term growth prospects from new markets.</li>
<li>At 22x forward earnings, Mixue trades at a premium to HK-listed F&amp;B peers, reflecting market optimism for above-consensus growth.</li>
</ul>


The expiry of cornerstone investors’ lock-up today modestly increases Mixue Group (2097 HK)’s free float, which still remains below 10%.
Mixue’s 1H2025 results show limited overseas scale-up, with growth driven entirely by the domestic market, raising concerns over long-term growth prospects from new markets.
At 22x forward earnings, Mixue trades at a premium to HK-listed F&amp;B peers, reflecting market optimism for above-consensus growth.


Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms' promotional campaigns. </li>
<li>As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin's C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.</li>
<li>Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;</li>
</ul>


Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms' promotional campaigns. 
As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin's C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;


[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Luckin Coffee reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, underlining significant year-over-year growth in both revenue and profitability.</li><li>The company revealed a 41% increase in total net revenues, reaching approximately RMB 8.9 billion, mainly driven by a 42% rise in gross merchandise value (GMV) amounting to RMB 10.4 billion.</li><li>The growth in revenue was primarily fueled by expanded product sales through increased customer transactions, supported by an extensive store network.</li></ul>

Luckin Coffee reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, underlining significant year-over-year growth in both revenue and profitability.The company revealed a 41% increase in total net revenues, reaching approximately RMB 8.9 billion, mainly driven by a 42% rise in gross merchandise value (GMV) amounting to RMB 10.4 billion.The growth in revenue was primarily fueled by expanded product sales through increased customer transactions, supported by an extensive store network.

Luckin Coffee’s U.S. Invasion: A Brewing Storm for Starbucks!

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.</li><li>Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.</li><li>I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.</li></ul>

Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.</li>
<li>A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.</li>
<li>If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.</li>
</ul>


The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.


Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

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Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)

Mixue (2097 HK): Lock-Up Expiry. After Doubling Post-IPO, Is the Fizz Running Out?

Stock upside seem constrained until Mixue delivers tangible overseas growth or margin expansion to justify premium valuations

Devi Subhakesan