Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE US: Post-May Holiday Slowdown in Existing Home Transactions, Stabilized New Home Sales. (/)</li>
<li>1810 HK : Several Xiaomi Car Owners Demand Refunds (-)</li>
<li>ZK US: Zeekr Launches Channel Reform, Introduces Agent-Based Partnership Model(+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE US: Post-May Holiday Slowdown in Existing Home Transactions, Stabilized New Home Sales. (/)
1810 HK : Several Xiaomi Car Owners Demand Refunds (-)
ZK US: Zeekr Launches Channel Reform, Introduces Agent-Based Partnership Model(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/ZK US/LKNCY US/Macro/New Energy Vehicles

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The consumption trend in Apr 2025 improved MoM across most sub-sectors compared to Mar 2025.</li><li>Numbers during the 2025 5-1 holidays either maintained this trend or further improved, mainly thanks to: 1) a low base, 2) improving weather conditions, 3) longer holidays compared to last year, and 4) fairly robust inbound tourism growth.</li><li>By subsector, apparel and tourism-hotel outperformed our expectations, sportswear and home appliances met expectations, while catering lagged behind. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The consumption trend in Apr 2025 improved MoM across most sub-sectors compared to Mar 2025.Numbers during the 2025 5-1 holidays either maintained this trend or further improved, mainly thanks to: 1) a low base, 2) improving weather conditions, 3) longer holidays compared to last year, and 4) fairly robust inbound tourism growth.By subsector, apparel and tourism-hotel outperformed our expectations, sportswear and home appliances met expectations, while catering lagged behind. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Constructive trend in S-R but cautious in L-R

<ul>
<li>The market reflects on Trump's economic policy to find the rationale behind. Our issue with Steven Miran's proposal of strong -tariff/weak-dollar is whether it will bring back manufacturing to USA; </li>
<li>Child birth policy from the capital of Inner-Mongolia could boost consumption and cost the country only Rmb100bn a year; </li>
<li>BYD launches 1,000 V super charge. Xiaomi and XPEV talking about overseas expansion. LI Auto guided C1Q25 sharply lower.</li>
</ul>


The market reflects on Trump's economic policy to find the rationale behind. Our issue with Steven Miran's proposal of strong -tariff/weak-dollar is whether it will bring back manufacturing to USA; 
Child birth policy from the capital of Inner-Mongolia could boost consumption and cost the country only Rmb100bn a year; 
BYD launches 1,000 V super charge. Xiaomi and XPEV talking about overseas expansion. LI Auto guided C1Q25 sharply lower.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics

<ul>
<li>Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. </li>
<li>LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;</li>
<li>MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. </li>
</ul>


Following existing home last week, new home sales also posted positive YoY growth. 
LI is getting ready for its major battle of the year with BEV launch. It is focused, but we doubt it is enough;
MNSO guided down its C4Q24 and we believe it will miss 2025 as well. Offline grocery is under constant assault by O2O and online e-commerce. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

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Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/ZK US/LKNCY US/Macro/New Energy Vehicles

Post-holiday slowdown in existing home transactions but stabilized new home sales; Xiaomi car owners demand refunds; Zeekr launches channel reform...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Consumer Discretionary - Constructive trend in S-R but cautious in L-R

Numbers during the 2025 5-1 holidays either maintained this trend or further improved, mainly thanks to: 1) a low base, 2) improving weather...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics

Analysis of Trump's economic policy, Inner-Mongolia's child birth policy, and updates on BYD, Xiaomi, XPEV, and LI Auto in the market.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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[Blue Lotus Daily]:BEKE US/1810 HK/ZK US/LKNCY US/Macro/New Energy Vehicles

​Post-holiday slowdown in existing home transactions but stabilized new home sales; Xiaomi car owners demand refunds; Zeekr launches channel reform...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Consumer Discretionary - Constructive trend in S-R but cautious in L-R

Numbers during the 2025 5-1 holidays either maintained this trend or further improved, mainly thanks to: 1) a low base, 2) improving weather...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics

​Analysis of Trump's economic policy, Inner-Mongolia's child birth policy, and updates on BYD, Xiaomi, XPEV, and LI Auto in the market.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 9/52] New Home Sales Also Turned Positive YoY

​Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Post-holiday slowdown in existing home transactions but stabilized new home sales; Xiaomi car owners demand refunds; Zeekr launches channel reform...

Analysis of Trump's economic policy, Inner-Mongolia's child birth policy, and updates on BYD, Xiaomi, XPEV, and LI Auto in the market.

Latest week saw positive YoY growth in new home sales, LI prepares for major battle with BEV launch, MNSO guidance down for C4Q24 and likely to...