Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a> will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a> saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a> reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.
</li>
</ul>


ETF flows in the Asian region continued their positive momentum during August with Southbound Connect positive again for the week.

Stella International (1836 HK) will increase its dividends and buybacks after positive earnings surprise. AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) saw a surge in new policies from mainlanders in HK.


Lufax Holding (6623 HK) reported an earnings miss with declining loan volume. Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) reported a decline of 57% in earnings which was below analysts' estimates.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

<ul><li>Lot’s of confusion for me around Lufax (LU).</li><li>I took my dividend in shares being under the impression the scrip price was $2.15 (1 ADR is 2 shares):“Option 2: Elect Stock - You may elect to receive the dividend paid in new ADRs of LUFAX HLDG LTD at rate USD 1.073647 per share held on record date.”</li><li>But apparently it is actually $2.25? Did IBKR make a mistake, will I get my shares at $2.15 or did I misread the above? </li></ul>

Lot’s of confusion for me around Lufax (LU).I took my dividend in shares being under the impression the scrip price was $2.15 (1 ADR is 2 shares):“Option 2: Elect Stock - You may elect to receive the dividend paid in new ADRs of LUFAX HLDG LTD at rate USD 1.073647 per share held on record date.”But apparently it is actually $2.25? Did IBKR make a mistake, will I get my shares at $2.15 or did I misread the above? 

<ul><li>I mentioned Noah holdings as a trade to buy before earnings since I anticipated an announcement of significant capital returns.</li><li>This has worked out well with over $2 in dividends announced. Half of that dividend will be recurring.</li><li>So I sold out all of my shares at just under $12. This was never a high conviction investment, but merely a trade. Marking it as a 18% return.</li></ul>

I mentioned Noah holdings as a trade to buy before earnings since I anticipated an announcement of significant capital returns.This has worked out well with over $2 in dividends announced. Half of that dividend will be recurring.So I sold out all of my shares at just under $12. This was never a high conviction investment, but merely a trade. Marking it as a 18% return.

<ul><li>Another quick trade idea. A continuation of the China theme (see my last post for more info).  Lufax holdings (LU). Again courtesy of JohnTill on Stocktwits.</li><li>A Chinese lending company, lending out directly and providing a peer to peer lending platform for the Chinese market.</li><li>With Ping An being a ~41% shareholder.</li></ul>

Another quick trade idea. A continuation of the China theme (see my last post for more info).  Lufax holdings (LU). Again courtesy of JohnTill on Stocktwits.A Chinese lending company, lending out directly and providing a peer to peer lending platform for the Chinese market.With Ping An being a ~41% shareholder.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

China

Lufax Holding Ltd operates technology-empowered personal financial services platform. The Company connects financial institutions to facilitate lending and wealth management products tailored to individual customer's needs and risk appetites.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lufax Holding (LU US)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 26)

ETF flows were again led by China. Stella International reported a surge in earnings and AIA announced new policy growth exceeded expectations....

David Mudd

Trying to Make Sense of Lufax

Analyst estimates are likely too conservative, and earnings might get close to $700-800m already in 2025 or $.8-9/share, which would make LU still...

Turtles all the way down

Update on active Ideas

I mentioned Noah holdings as a trade to buy before earnings since I anticipated an announcement of significant capital returns.

Turtles all the way down

Quick Ideas #9

A Chinese lending company, lending out directly and providing a peer to peer lending platform for the Chinese market. With Ping An being a ~41%...

Turtles all the way down

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)