HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The 2024 China Hospital Medication Market Pattern Report has been released, and we have found some interesting points worth the attention.</li>
<li>CNPGC plans to acquire 21.03% of Pacific Shuanglin's shares at a premium of over 30% and become the actual controller. Due to horizontal competition issue, there’s potential M&amp;A/privatization opportunities here.</li>
<li>The IPO of Zhou Liu Fu is fairly priced. But fundamentals would not improve due to high gold prices and would deteriorate instead. Share price upside potential could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 China Hospital Medication Market Pattern Report has been released, and we have found some interesting points worth the attention.
CNPGC plans to acquire 21.03% of Pacific Shuanglin's shares at a premium of over 30% and become the actual controller. Due to horizontal competition issue, there’s potential M&amp;A/privatization opportunities here.
The IPO of Zhou Liu Fu is fairly priced. But fundamentals would not improve due to high gold prices and would deteriorate instead. Share price upside potential could be lower-than-expected.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.22) - CNPGC to Acquire Shuanglin, Thoughts on Zhou Liu Fu's IPO Pricing

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market's assumption of no special dividends in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>'s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. </li>
<li>Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. </li>
<li>A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF's share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.</li>
</ul>


The market's assumption of no special dividends in Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)'s upcoming FY24 result is conservative, and this does not fit into its usual pattern. 
Should it pay special DPS, the dividend yield may reach an attractive 10.7%. With its net cash position, CTF can financially maintain the average 135.6% payout ratio. 
A return to its historical average dividend yield of 7.4% means that CTF's share price will need to go up by 45% from the current level.


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK)</a> is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International (178 HK)</a> is the cosmetics play.</li>
<li>Property investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hysan-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14169:1" rel="noopener">Hysan Development Co (14 HK)</a> will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.

Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. Sa Sa International (178 HK) is the cosmetics play.
Property investors including Wharf Holdings (4 HK) and Hysan Development Co (14 HK) will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.


Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our earnings projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.</li>
<li>At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.</li>
<li>Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.</li>
</ul>


Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.
Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery Co., Ltd. (6168 HK)</a>'s IPO does not appeal to us, given deteriorating profitability, smaller size, and inferior financials. </li>
<li>Its IPO price of HK$24.0 appears to be fair relative to the peers' valuation, leaving limited upside and downside in the secondary market. </li>
<li>We value the stock at HK$22.5-25.7, based on 20-30% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>. It is not another <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery Co., Ltd. (6168 HK)'s IPO does not appeal to us, given deteriorating profitability, smaller size, and inferior financials. 
Its IPO price of HK$24.0 appears to be fair relative to the peers' valuation, leaving limited upside and downside in the secondary market. 
We value the stock at HK$22.5-25.7, based on 20-30% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK). It is not another Laopu Gold (6181 HK). 


Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea

Hong Kong

Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited retails jewellery. The Company engages in the sourcing, designing, wholesaling and retailing of a variety of platinum and gold jewellery, gold ornaments, gem-set jewellery, natural jadeites, gemstones, and other related products. Luk Fook offers its products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, Singapore, the United States and Canada.

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Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.22) - CNPGC to Acquire Shuanglin, Thoughts on Zhou Liu Fu's IPO Pricing

CNPGC plan to acquire Pacific Shuanglin, bringing new M&A/privatization due to horizontal competition. Zhou Liu Fu's IPO is fairly priced, but...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea

Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery's IPO lacks appeal due to declining profitability, smaller size, and weaker financials, with limited upside and downside in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.22) - CNPGC to Acquire Shuanglin, Thoughts on Zhou Liu Fu's IPO Pricing

CNPGC plan to acquire Pacific Shuanglin, bringing new M&A/privatization due to horizontal competition. Zhou Liu Fu's IPO is fairly priced, but...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): What if Special Dividends Are Declared?

​The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

​Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

CDFC's H-share lPO is priced too high relative to fair value based on our earnings forecasts. There are potentially better entry levels when the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK) IPO: Not Our Cup of Tea

​Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery's IPO lacks appeal due to declining profitability, smaller size, and weaker financials, with limited upside and downside in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The market's assumption of no special dividends for CTF's FY24 result may be off - potential for an attractive 10.7% yield. The share price could...

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Zhou Liu Fu Jewelery's IPO lacks appeal due to declining profitability, smaller size, and weaker financials, with limited upside and downside in...