Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Obvious policy efforts are being made to drive consumption and improve consumer confidence.</li>
<li>Previous attempts have resulted in increased savings but policy direction has changed</li>
<li>Beaten-Up consumer names have a good risk-reward at this stage</li>
</ul>


Obvious policy efforts are being made to drive consumption and improve consumer confidence.
Previous attempts have resulted in increased savings but policy direction has changed
Beaten-Up consumer names have a good risk-reward at this stage


China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. </li>
<li>Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.</li>
<li>Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. </li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. 
Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.
Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. 


Luk Fook Holdings Intl / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand</li>
<li>Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector</li>
<li>Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.</li>
</ul>


March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand
Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector
Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.


<ul>
<li>Stock price starting to recognise the increase in  Chinese demand for Gold.</li>
<li>Helped by a bottoming and a revival in Hong Kong retail sales and tourist arrivals.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> close to a new all time high</li>
</ul>


Stock price starting to recognise the increase in  Chinese demand for Gold.
Helped by a bottoming and a revival in Hong Kong retail sales and tourist arrivals.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US) close to a new all time high


Starting to Glitter (Luk Fook Holdings 590.HK)

<ul>
<li>While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.</li>
<li>Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.</li>
<li>It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiabuxiabu-catering-mgt-chn-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:76:1" rel="noopener">Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helen-s-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34113:1" rel="noopener">Helen's (9869 HK)</a> which have almost doubled from trough.</li>
</ul>


While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.
Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.
It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like Haidilao (6862 HK), Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) and Helen's (9869 HK) which have almost doubled from trough.


China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Hong Kong

Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited retails jewellery. The Company engages in the sourcing, designing, wholesaling and retailing of a variety of platinum and gold jewellery, gold ornaments, gem-set jewellery, natural jadeites, gemstones, and other related products. Luk Fook offers its products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, Singapore, the United States and Canada.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK)

China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

Rikki Malik

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed

CTF disappoints with poor 2H24 profit and lack of special dividend. Gold loan losses and margin contraction are key reasons. Earnings downgrade...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

Despite temporary hiccups, the company is geared to the rising trends of rising gold prices and demand by Chinese consumers. Sales are at a pre...

Rikki Malik

Starting to Glitter (Luk Fook Holdings 590.HK)

A consumer stock with an attractive valuation and growing earnings as well as a play on Chinese demand for gold and a higher gold price.

Rikki Malik

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Near-term negative impact of China's U-turn in COVID policy on consumer discretionary has been underestimated by the market. It is prudent to take...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

​Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

Rikki Malik

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed

​CTF disappoints with poor 2H24 profit and lack of special dividend. Gold loan losses and margin contraction are key reasons. Earnings downgrade...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

Despite temporary hiccups, the company is geared to the rising trends of rising gold prices and demand by Chinese consumers. Sales are at a pre...

Rikki Malik

Starting to Glitter (Luk Fook Holdings 590.HK)

A consumer stock with an attractive valuation and growing earnings as well as a play on Chinese demand for gold and a higher gold price.

Rikki Malik

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Near-term negative impact of China's U-turn in COVID policy on consumer discretionary has been underestimated by the market. It is prudent to take...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

CTF disappoints with poor 2H24 profit and lack of special dividend. Gold loan losses and margin contraction are key reasons. Earnings downgrade...