Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We look at another Japanese company in the AI capex supply chain</li>
<li>A company misclassified into TOPIX Precision Instruments, not Semiconductor Equipment</li>
<li>Sits at the intersection of 3 megatrends, where revenue is yet to contribute meaningfully</li>
</ul>


We look at another Japanese company in the AI capex supply chain
A company misclassified into TOPIX Precision Instruments, not Semiconductor Equipment
Sits at the intersection of 3 megatrends, where revenue is yet to contribute meaningfully


Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiary #2

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<blockquote> ‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM prices down about 20% from its January peak and NAND flash down a third. Many bulls put premature faith in AI and AVs as incremental demand drivers, certainly valid medium term, but not on a scale to offset smartphone weakness this year while for high-end chip makers the end of the crypto mining frenzy is starting to impact. TSMC said this week that sales will rise by only a ‘high single-digit’ percentage in USD terms, down from a previous (reduced) projection of 10%.’</blockquote><div class="content-remarks">Weekly Insight, July 20th 2018</div>

 ‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM prices down about 20% from its January peak and NAND flash down a third. Many bulls put premature faith in AI and AVs as incremental demand drivers, certainly valid medium term, but not on a scale to offset smartphone weakness this year while for high-end chip makers the end of the crypto mining frenzy is starting to impact. TSMC said this week that sales will rise by only a ‘high single-digit’ percentage in USD terms, down from a previous (reduced) projection of 10%.’Weekly Insight, July 20th 2018

Bearish Tech Stance Still Performing, as 5G Rollout Looms

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Huagong Tech Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HGTECH is seeking to raise at least USD100m through an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's three segments: optical interconnect, intelligent sensing, and intelligent manufacturing.</li>
<li>We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value anchored by A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


HGTECH is seeking to raise at least USD100m through an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's three segments: optical interconnect, intelligent sensing, and intelligent manufacturing.
We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value anchored by A-H premium.


US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a> will be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 15 May 2026 due to the fast-exit rule, which has been implemented for the last time with the old methodology.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lumentum-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12529:1" rel="noopener">Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)</a> will be added to the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coreweave-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44471:1" rel="noopener">CoreWeave (CRWV US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medline-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45954:1" rel="noopener">Medline (MDLN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teradyne-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13088:1" rel="noopener">Teradyne Inc (TER US)</a> are now the top addition candidates to replace the upcoming deletions in June 2026 with the new methodology.</li>
</ul>



Costar Group (CSGP US) will be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 15 May 2026 due to the fast-exit rule, which has been implemented for the last time with the old methodology.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE US) will be added to the index replacing Costar Group (CSGP US).

CoreWeave (CRWV US), Medline (MDLN US) and Teradyne Inc (TER US) are now the top addition candidates to replace the upcoming deletions in June 2026 with the new methodology.


Lumentum (LITE US): Nasdaq100 Inclusion Driven by Costar’s Fast‑Exit

United States

Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies optical and photonic products. Lumentum Holdings serves data communications and telecommunications, networking, and life-sciences markets worldwide.

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Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US...

Vermilion Research

Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiary #2

Another Japanese beneficiary in the AI capex supply chain, positioned at the intersection of 3 megatrends driving growth

Rikki Malik

Bearish Tech Stance Still Performing, as 5G Rollout Looms

‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM...

Sean Maher

HGTECH A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

HGTECH is seeking to raise at least USD100m through a Hong Kong A+H. This note reviews the company's business mix, industry position, financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Lumentum (LITE US): Nasdaq100 Inclusion Driven by Costar’s Fast‑Exit

Costar will be removed from Nasdaq100 via fast‑exit on 15 May with Lumentum replacing it, while Medline, CoreWeave and Teradyne are the top...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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