Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pricing data now shows that the Copper-Aluminum price ratio is at its highest level, 4.3x, and a reversion to the mean is likely, suggesting a long aluminum, short copper trade. </li>
<li>The historic average has been 3.6x, and the lows have been at 2.75x. In all three instances in the last seven years, after touching 4.3x, mean reversion occurred.</li>
<li>Long-Term, we like copper fundamentals, and our favorite stocks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Pricing data now shows that the Copper-Aluminum price ratio is at its highest level, 4.3x, and a reversion to the mean is likely, suggesting a long aluminum, short copper trade. 
The historic average has been 3.6x, and the lows have been at 2.75x. In all three instances in the last seven years, after touching 4.3x, mean reversion occurred.
Long-Term, we like copper fundamentals, and our favorite stocks are ERO Copper (ERO US), Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), Lundin Mining (LUN CN), and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper: The Continuous Rise Of Comex Inventories And The Mean Reversion Of Copper-Aluminum Price

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

In this report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels, highlighting the following actionable names: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX-US), Southern Copper (SCCO-US), OZ Minerals (OZL-AU), Antofagasta plc (ANTO-GB), KAZ Minerals (KAZ-GB), Aurubis AG (NDA-DE), Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB-MX), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-CA), First Quantum Minerals (FM-CA), Lundin Mining (LUN-CA), Hudbay Minerals (HBM-CA), Capstone Mining (CS-CA), Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ-US, TRQ-CA), Taseko Mines (TGB-US, TKO-CA), and MMG Ltd. (1208-HK).

In this report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels, highlighting the following actionable names: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX-US), Southern Copper (SCCO-US), OZ Minerals (OZL-AU), Antofagasta plc (ANTO-GB), KAZ Minerals (KAZ-GB), Aurubis AG (NDA-DE), Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB-MX), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-CA), First Quantum Minerals (FM-CA), Lundin Mining (LUN-CA), Hudbay Minerals (HBM-CA), Capstone Mining (CS-CA), Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ-US, TRQ-CA), Taseko Mines (TGB-US, TKO-CA), and MMG Ltd. (1208-HK).

Copper Miners Breaking Out Around The Globe -- Buy

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

<ul>
<li>We expect copper prices to remain elevated at over 13,000 USD/ton in the foreseeable future, leading to upgrades in the equities.</li>
<li>As highlighted in our earlier note, Copper Price Correction: Four Stocks To Look At, our top picks in the copper space: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>.</li>
<li>We also like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, although they are bigger names with richer valuations. </li>
</ul>


We expect copper prices to remain elevated at over 13,000 USD/ton in the foreseeable future, leading to upgrades in the equities.
As highlighted in our earlier note, Copper Price Correction: Four Stocks To Look At, our top picks in the copper space: ERO Copper (ERO US) and Lundin Mining (LUN CN).
We also like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), although they are bigger names with richer valuations. 


Copper: Remain Bullish Stocks, Copper Price To Stay Elevated At >13,000 USD/Ton

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Copper: The Continuous Rise Of Comex Inventories And The Mean Reversion Of Copper-Aluminum Price

We highlight the increasing Cu-Al ratio in this insight and other KPIs influencing the copper trade. We also provide our top long-term picks in the...

Sameer Taneja

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Copper Miners Breaking Out Around The Globe -- Buy

In this report we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to copper miners at current levels, highlighting the following...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports...

Vermilion Research

Copper: Remain Bullish Stocks, Copper Price To Stay Elevated At >13,000 USD/Ton

Risk-off rattles copper, but fundamentals intact. Record Q1s from SCCO, ANTO & LUN. Inventories peaking = bull cycle loading.

Sameer Taneja

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