Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/bhp-abandons-anglo-american-approach-says-own-growth-plan-compelling-2025-11-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP-Anglo merger </a>was followed by the successful <a href="https://www.angloamerican.com/investors/anglo-american-teck-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anglo-Teck</a> merger and, more recently, the revived <a href="https://www.afr.com/rich-list/ivan-glasenberg-s-wealth-tops-21b-on-rio-glencore-mega-merger-talks-20260114-p5ntvp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rio-Glencore merger</a> talks.</li>
<li>Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.</li>
<li>Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.</li>
</ul>


Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed BHP-Anglo merger was followed by the successful Anglo-Teck merger and, more recently, the revived Rio-Glencore merger talks.
Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.
Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.


Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

<ul>
<li>In our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-mine-by-mine-supply-challenges-for-everyone-update-as-copper-is-set-to-break-12k-usd-ton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.</a>The latest copper supply casualty is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capstone-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25359:1" rel="noopener">Capstone Copper (CS CN)</a> with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-02/capstone-chile-miners-strike-as-record-copper-lifts-expectations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile</a>.</li>
<li>Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaks-12k-usd-ton-move-to-13k-usd-ton-by-early-next-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:215539" rel="noopener">Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year</a> </li>
<li>Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.</li>
</ul>


In our prior insight, we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.The latest copper supply casualty is Capstone Copper (CS CN) with a strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile.
Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year 
Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.


Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

<ul>
<li>We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. </li>
<li>These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. </li>
<li>We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. 
These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. 
We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

The pursuit of critical minerals by corporations and countries (China, USA) is driving animal spirits in the copper market. We highlight our top...

Sameer Taneja

Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine (CS CN) has curtailed roughly 70% of output, adding to supply risk as copper prices continue to trend...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

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