Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a target="_blank">"Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton</a>," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.</li>
<li>We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries of the copper rally are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>, which are our top picks. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, "Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton," copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market's supply.  A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks. 


Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

<ul><li>In the history of mining corporate strategy, few companies have executed a more comprehensive and successful transformation than Lundin Mining between 2020 and 2024.</li><li>Under the sequential leadership of CEO Peter Rockandel and his successor, Jack Lundin, the company has orchestrated a methodical repositioning from an unfocused, geographically diversified base metals producer into a concentrated, copper-dominant miner with world-class greenfield growth prospects.</li><li>This transformation, achieved through the sale of non-core assets, a doubling down on the pursuit of operational excellence, and over four billion dollars in strategic capital allocation decisions, represents a masterclass in corporate strategy within the cyclical and capital-intensive mining industry.</li></ul>

In the history of mining corporate strategy, few companies have executed a more comprehensive and successful transformation than Lundin Mining between 2020 and 2024.Under the sequential leadership of CEO Peter Rockandel and his successor, Jack Lundin, the company has orchestrated a methodical repositioning from an unfocused, geographically diversified base metals producer into a concentrated, copper-dominant miner with world-class greenfield growth prospects.This transformation, achieved through the sale of non-core assets, a doubling down on the pursuit of operational excellence, and over four billion dollars in strategic capital allocation decisions, represents a masterclass in corporate strategy within the cyclical and capital-intensive mining industry.

The Transformation of Lundin Mining: A Five Year Capital Allocation Masterclass (2020-2024)

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rate-cut-to-spur-copper-performance-in-the-short-term-to-over-10k-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:198832" rel="noopener">Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton.</a> </li>
<li>Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> are our favorite names. The <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/first-quantum-takes-small-steps-in-long-road-to-panama-mine-restart/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">restart of the Cobre Panama</a> mine (although low probability) could boost <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton. 
Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.

Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) are our favorite names. The restart of the Cobre Panama mine (although low probability) could boost First Quantum Minerals (FM CN).


Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

<ul>
<li>Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper's market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month.</li>
<li>We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.</li>
<li>Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China's softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.</li>
</ul>


Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper's market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China's softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.


Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The company has been able to lower costs significantly by 12% YoY, improve on its byproduct credits by 37%YoY due to gold prices increasing, while copper prices rose 3.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Production for H1FY25 rose 10% YoY, led by a ramp-up in Centinala, resulting in EBITDA/profit improving by 60% YoY. </li>
<li>While the stock trades at 25x FY25e P/E, we believe that the runway for earnings improvement is enormous as the company ramps up its volumes and manages costs.</li>
</ul>


The company has been able to lower costs significantly by 12% YoY, improve on its byproduct credits by 37%YoY due to gold prices increasing, while copper prices rose 3.5% YoY.
Production for H1FY25 rose 10% YoY, led by a ramp-up in Centinala, resulting in EBITDA/profit improving by 60% YoY. 
While the stock trades at 25x FY25e P/E, we believe that the runway for earnings improvement is enormous as the company ramps up its volumes and manages costs.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2025: Outperforming The Pack

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper is poised for a strong seasonal rally as supply disruptions tighten markets and demand strengthens; we detail recent outages and updated...

Sameer Taneja

The Transformation of Lundin Mining: A Five Year Capital Allocation Masterclass (2020-2024)

In the history of mining corporate strategy, few companies have executed a more comprehensive and successful transformation than Lundin Mining...

Massif Capital Research

Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

Copper looks all set to break the 10,000 USD/ton barrier in the short-term. We highlight our top picks to play the bullish copper trade.

Sameer Taneja

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

Copper has a new catalyst in anticipated rate cuts by the Fed. We believe that despite the high inventories, there is a good short-term setup for...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2025: Outperforming The Pack

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) is outperforming its peers based on improvements in production and costs. Coupled with a strong pricing environment for...

Sameer Taneja

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