Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices</li>
<li>Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan</li>
<li>Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase</li>
</ul>


Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices
Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan
Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase


Sumitomo Metal Mining -  A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Electrification, AI data centers, and defense drive 60% of incremental copper demand to 2040; primary supply peaks in 2030, creating a 14 MMt structural gap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>  grows consolidated copper from 323 kt (2026 midpoint) to 500 kt+ via near-term brownfields (Saúva, Caserones cathode, Candelaria UG insourcing) and Vicuña Stages 1-3.</li>
<li>2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.27B and FCF of $1.24B underpin a $220M distribution; 10-yr cumulative FCF of $23.6B with Vicuña; net cash balance sheet supports sanctioning.</li>
</ul>


Electrification, AI data centers, and defense drive 60% of incremental copper demand to 2040; primary supply peaks in 2030, creating a 14 MMt structural gap.

Lundin Mining (LUN CN)  grows consolidated copper from 323 kt (2026 midpoint) to 500 kt+ via near-term brownfields (Saúva, Caserones cathode, Candelaria UG insourcing) and Vicuña Stages 1-3.
2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.27B and FCF of $1.24B underpin a $220M distribution; 10-yr cumulative FCF of $23.6B with Vicuña; net cash balance sheet supports sanctioning.


Lundin Mining (LUN CN): Capital Markets Day, Bullish Copper Growth Story

<ul>
<li>Revenue +26% YoY to $1,159M; adj. EBITDA +64% to $627M entirely price-driven on Cu $5.70/lb (+23%) and Au $5,123/oz (+64%). C1 cash cost of $1.66/lb below the $1.90-$2.10/lb guidance.</li>
<li>
Diesel (7% of costs) currently ~$1/litre vs $0.60/liter guidance baseline; $0.08/lb C1 impact flagged. Sulphuric acid at ~$300/t; Caserones consumption (~45,000 t/yr) uninterrupted.</li>
<li>At C$36.8, the stock trades 7.6x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Estimates exclude the Vicuna project, which has an NPV of 28 bn USD (on a 100% project basis) at $6/lb. </li>
</ul>


Revenue +26% YoY to $1,159M; adj. EBITDA +64% to $627M entirely price-driven on Cu $5.70/lb (+23%) and Au $5,123/oz (+64%). C1 cash cost of $1.66/lb below the $1.90-$2.10/lb guidance.

Diesel (7% of costs) currently ~$1/litre vs $0.60/liter guidance baseline; $0.08/lb C1 impact flagged. Sulphuric acid at ~$300/t; Caserones consumption (~45,000 t/yr) uninterrupted.
At C$36.8, the stock trades 7.6x FY26E EV/EBITDA. Estimates exclude the Vicuna project, which has an NPV of 28 bn USD (on a 100% project basis) at $6/lb. 


Lundin Mining Corp (LUN CN) Q1 FY2026: Strong, No Major Diesel/Sulfuric Acid Concerns

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<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783">Lundin Mining</a> is strategically repositioning itself as a copper-focused producer, capitalizing on the metal's critical role in global electrification and the energy transition. The recent divestiture of European zinc assets and the acquisition of a majority stake in the Caserones copper mine underscore this pivot.</li>
 <li>The company possesses a portfolio of high-quality, long-life assets primarily in the Americas, with significant growth potential from its Vicuña District projects (Josemaria and Filo del Sol) in partnership with BHP. This pipeline is a key long-term value driver.</li>
 <li>Financial performance is strong, with robust revenue growth and a significantly improved balance sheet. However, the company remains exposed to volatile commodity prices, operational risks, and geopolitical uncertainty in its key operating jurisdictions of Chile and Argentina.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Lundin Mining is strategically repositioning itself as a copper-focused producer, capitalizing on the metal's critical role in global electrification and the energy transition. The recent divestiture of European zinc assets and the acquisition of a majority stake in the Caserones copper mine underscore this pivot.
  The company possesses a portfolio of high-quality, long-life assets primarily in the Americas, with significant growth potential from its Vicuña District projects (Josemaria and Filo del Sol) in partnership with BHP. This pipeline is a key long-term value driver.
  Financial performance is strong, with robust revenue growth and a significantly improved balance sheet. However, the company remains exposed to volatile commodity prices, operational risks, and geopolitical uncertainty in its key operating jurisdictions of Chile and Argentina.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Lundin Mining (LUN CN) - Apr 2026

<ul>
<li>Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). </li>
<li>Our recent picks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ero-copper-corp-ero-us-ero-cn-update-q2-fy26-results-cash-inflection-confirmed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:262650" rel="noopener">Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
<li>We also like bellwethers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). 
Our recent picks Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed /Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 
We also like bellwethers like Lundin Mining (LUN CN) / Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Sumitomo Metal Mining - A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

This miner has extremely conservative forecasts, some scarcity value, and a strong balance sheet for potential future buybacks and dividends.

Rikki Malik