Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.</li>
<li>Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.</li>
<li>13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. </li>
</ul>


The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.
Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.
13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. 


Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China announces bolder stimulus for 2025, signaling more rate cuts and commodity prices surge</li><li>Lundin Mining sells assets to focus on Vicuna project, raising questions on copper and zinc market dynamics</li><li>Boliden acquires assets from Lundin, strengthening their position in the copper and zinc markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

China announces bolder stimulus for 2025, signaling more rate cuts and commodity prices surgeLundin Mining sells assets to focus on Vicuna project, raising questions on copper and zinc market dynamicsBoliden acquires assets from Lundin, strengthening their position in the copper and zinc marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ero-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38695:1" rel="noopener">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection</li>
<li>Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, <a target="_blank">ERO Copper (ERO US)</a> is the cheapest, while <a target="_blank">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a>, at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. </li>
</ul>


Copper has now entered the USD 14,000/ton range and consolidated. At these levels, companies are likely to see very positive HoH earnings, as production levels are also more H2-weighted.

ERO Copper (ERO US), Lundin Mining (LUN CN), and Antofagasta (ANTO LN) are three names with cheap to reasonable valuations to play the copper price inflection
Trading at 8x PE and 5.2x EV-EBITDA, ERO Copper (ERO US) is the cheapest, while Lundin Mining (LUN CN), at 14x PE and 6.1x EV-EBITDA, offers massive growth upside from Vicuna. 


Copper Price Inflection To 14,000 USD/Ton And Three Stocks To Play It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

<ul><li>BHP bullish on copper, bearish on iron ore due to buying Filo with Lundeens</li><li>FMG share price down nearly 40% with export volumes shrinking and rising costs in WA operations</li><li>Iron ore prices break below $100/ton for the first time in a while, China steelmaker Jiangsu DeLong facing counterparty risk and property market struggles due to lack of demand and unfinished projects</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

BHP bullish on copper, bearish on iron ore due to buying Filo with LundeensFMG share price down nearly 40% with export volumes shrinking and rising costs in WA operationsIron ore prices break below $100/ton for the first time in a while, China steelmaker Jiangsu DeLong facing counterparty risk and property market struggles due to lack of demand and unfinished projectsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Largest Acquisition of an Undeveloped Project in Decades

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders

Debt-free copper tolling business with no mining or reserve risk, 75% FY26E ROCE and a cash-sweep payout policy that passes copper upside straight...

Sameer Taneja

$1.5B for a 4th Quartile Mine?

China announces bolder stimulus, commodity stocks rise, Lundin Mining sells assets, focusing on copper mining, while Boliden acquires Nevis Corvo...

Money of Mine

Copper Price Inflection To 14,000 USD/Ton And Three Stocks To Play It

Copper is consolidating at 14,000 USD/ton. We highlight some updates in the copper market and cheap equities to play the copper story, like Ero...

Sameer Taneja

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

The Largest Acquisition of an Undeveloped Project in Decades

BHP bullish on copper but bearish on iron ore, FMG experiencing block trades and share price decrease, uncertainty in future projects and executive...

Money of Mine

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