Equity Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. </li>
<li>The long thesis is simple - I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.</li>
<li>Blackstone just announced a potential bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
The long thesis is simple - I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L'Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.


Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  </li>
<li>China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft</li>
<li>The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    </li>
</ul>


European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  
China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft
The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    


LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moncler-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21206:1" rel="noopener">Moncler SpA (MONC IM)</a> is an outstanding compounder with clear market leading position in luxury outerwear.</li>
<li>Moat is increasing every year through relentless focus on brand building.  </li>
<li>We believe that Moncler deserves a higher PE multiple than its current 22x forward expected earnings.      </li>
</ul>



Moncler SpA (MONC IM) is an outstanding compounder with clear market leading position in luxury outerwear.
Moat is increasing every year through relentless focus on brand building.  
We believe that Moncler deserves a higher PE multiple than its current 22x forward expected earnings.      


Moncler (MONC IM):  Not Just A Fashion Down Jacket Brand

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending</li><li>Repeated Covid-related lockdowns starting in the second quarter curbed travel and consumption, with shopping mall traffic falling by 30% to 35%</li><li>Sales at Hainan’s duty-free shops operated by state-owned China Duty Free Group Co. Ltd. were expected to drop 30% to 35 billion yuan ($515 million) last year.</li></ul>

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spendingRepeated Covid-related lockdowns starting in the second quarter curbed travel and consumption, with shopping mall traffic falling by 30% to 35%Sales at Hainan’s duty-free shops operated by state-owned China Duty Free Group Co. Ltd. were expected to drop 30% to 35 billion yuan ($515 million) last year.

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

France

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is a diversified luxury goods group. The Company produces and sells wine, cognac, perfumes, cosmetics, luggage, and watches and jewelry.

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Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP)

Shiseido (4911 JP): This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Steve Zhou, CFA

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Moncler (MONC IM): Not Just A Fashion Down Jacket Brand

Moncler SpA (MONC IM) is a leading luxury outerwear brand with a strong market position and increasing brand value, deserving of a higher valuation.

Steve Zhou, CFA

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shiseido (4911 JP): This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

​Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

Steve Zhou, CFA

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

​European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

Moncler (MONC IM): Not Just A Fashion Down Jacket Brand

​Moncler SpA (MONC IM) is a leading luxury outerwear brand with a strong market position and increasing brand value, deserving of a higher valuation.

Steve Zhou, CFA

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending

Caixin Global

Shiseido heavily relies on Japan and China for sales, and with expected improvements in these regions, the company's attractive valuation makes it...

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Moncler SpA (MONC IM) is a leading luxury outerwear brand with a strong market position and increasing brand value, deserving of a higher valuation.