Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas, but a modest pick-up from the previous 12 months has inspired optimism among major luxury houses, according to a new report and brand forecasts.
</li>
<li>
The sector grew 12% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a recovery from the previous year’s pandemic-induced decline, consultancy Bain &amp; Co. Inc.’s latest report about the market shows.
</li>
<li>
“The solid double-digit rebound is commendable, but China’s luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2021 levels,” said Bruno Lannes, a senior partner at Bain &amp; Co.
</li>
</ul>



China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas, but a modest pick-up from the previous 12 months has inspired optimism among major luxury houses, according to a new report and brand forecasts.


The sector grew 12% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a recovery from the previous year’s pandemic-induced decline, consultancy Bain &amp; Co. Inc.’s latest report about the market shows.


“The solid double-digit rebound is commendable, but China’s luxury market has not fully recovered to its 2021 levels,” said Bruno Lannes, a senior partner at Bain &amp; Co.



China Luxury Market Still Lags Previous Heights Despite ‘Solid’ Gains in 2023 

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul><li>China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending</li><li>Repeated Covid-related lockdowns starting in the second quarter curbed travel and consumption, with shopping mall traffic falling by 30% to 35%</li><li>Sales at Hainan’s duty-free shops operated by state-owned China Duty Free Group Co. Ltd. were expected to drop 30% to 35 billion yuan ($515 million) last year.</li></ul>

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spendingRepeated Covid-related lockdowns starting in the second quarter curbed travel and consumption, with shopping mall traffic falling by 30% to 35%Sales at Hainan’s duty-free shops operated by state-owned China Duty Free Group Co. Ltd. were expected to drop 30% to 35 billion yuan ($515 million) last year.

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

France

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is a diversified luxury goods group. The Company produces and sells wine, cognac, perfumes, cosmetics, luggage, and watches and jewelry. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton serves customers in France.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitt (LVMUY US)

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LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitt (LVMUY US)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

China Luxury Market Still Lags Previous Heights Despite ‘Solid’ Gains in 2023

China’s luxury market last year failed to recover to 2021 levels amid a slowdown in economic growth and as more consumers made purchases overseas,...

Caixin Global

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending

Caixin Global

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

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