Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> 3Q24 outlook could be showing a slightly upside quarter over quarter and the gross margin is approaching to ~30%.</li>
<li>We estimate that UMC's overall utilization in 3Q24 will be around 65-70%, with 12” at 70-75% and 8” at 60%.</li>
<li>UMC is benefiting from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) 3Q24 outlook could be showing a slightly upside quarter over quarter and the gross margin is approaching to ~30%.
We estimate that UMC's overall utilization in 3Q24 will be around 65-70%, with 12” at 70-75% and 8” at 60%.
UMC is benefiting from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple (AAPL US) in 3Q24.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> had reserved Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 Display Driver IC (DDIC) for future shipment since 3Q24F when qualification past.</li>
<li>Novatek's outlook is increasing to about 1~5% in 1Q24F, remarked a higher quarter demand than 4Q23.</li>
<li>It could be a low season in 2Q24F because the rush order shown up around Chinese New Year.  </li>
</ul>



Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) had reserved Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 Display Driver IC (DDIC) for future shipment since 3Q24F when qualification past.
Novatek's outlook is increasing to about 1~5% in 1Q24F, remarked a higher quarter demand than 4Q23.
It could be a low season in 2Q24F because the rush order shown up around Chinese New Year.  


Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jan 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD9.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We have highlighted KRX short interest weekly changes in Celltrion.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jan 12th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD9.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We have highlighted KRX short interest weekly changes in Celltrion.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Celltrion

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Posco DX's KOSPI 200 fast entry effective date will likely coincide with the December regular rebalancing date.</li>
<li>We should focus on the ad-hoc change deletion as we can expect more pronounced price impact near the effective date due to lower chances of premature exposure than regular reviews.</li>
<li>The following three candidates are screened: K Car, Daesang Corporation, and Shinsegae International. They are all likely to exhibit a significant passive impact (x ADTV).</li>
</ul>


Posco DX's KOSPI 200 fast entry effective date will likely coincide with the December regular rebalancing date.
We should focus on the ad-hoc change deletion as we can expect more pronounced price impact near the effective date due to lower chances of premature exposure than regular reviews.
The following three candidates are screened: K Car, Daesang Corporation, and Shinsegae International. They are all likely to exhibit a significant passive impact (x ADTV).


Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing

<ul>
<li>LX Semicon and Tokai Carbon Korea will be excluded, and these two positions will be filled by Eo Technics and either HPSP or ISC Co Ltd.</li>
<li>The effective date is October 16th, and the rebalancing trading by the TIGER ETF occurs towards the closing (likely to start around 2 p.m.) on Friday, October 13th.</li>
<li>The practical setup would entail an EO Technics-TCK Long Short pair. For a more aggressive strategy, we could explore the inclusion of HPSP in this setup.</li>
</ul>


LX Semicon and Tokai Carbon Korea will be excluded, and these two positions will be filled by Eo Technics and either HPSP or ISC Co Ltd.
The effective date is October 16th, and the rebalancing trading by the TIGER ETF occurs towards the closing (likely to start around 2 p.m.) on Friday, October 13th.
The practical setup would entail an EO Technics-TCK Long Short pair. For a more aggressive strategy, we could explore the inclusion of HPSP in this setup.


Long Short Flow Trading Opportunity: TIGER Semicon Top 10 ETF Rebalancing Next Friday

South Korea

LX Semicon Co., Ltd. designs, develops, and markets mixed-signal semiconductors. The Company utilizes its own algorithm and technologies to enhance the features and capabilities of flat panel displays that are used in electronic devices and mobile handsets. LX Semicon markets its products worldwide.

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LX Semicon (108320 KS)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

UMC's 3rd quarter outlook shows a slight upside, with estimated overall utilization at 65-70% and benefits from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple.

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

Novatek has reserved DDIC for iPhone future shipment, with an expected increase in demand since 3Q24. However, there may be a slowdown in 2Q24 due...

Patrick Liao

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Celltrion

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and we highlighted KRX short interest weekly changes in Celltrion.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing

This post explores the schedule for Posco DX's inclusion in the KOSPI 200 and how we should target the resulting deletion after its transfer...

Sanghyun Park

Long Short Flow Trading Opportunity: TIGER Semicon Top 10 ETF Rebalancing Next Friday

This post explores a Long-Short flow trading opportunity, which will likely be presented next Friday by the TIGER Semicon Top 10 ETF rebalancing.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

​UMC's 3rd quarter outlook shows a slight upside, with estimated overall utilization at 65-70% and benefits from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple.

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

​Novatek has reserved DDIC for iPhone future shipment, with an expected increase in demand since 3Q24. However, there may be a slowdown in 2Q24 due...

Patrick Liao

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 12th): Celltrion

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and we highlighted KRX short interest weekly changes in Celltrion.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Prime Target for Flow Trading Due to Low Pre-Exposure in December KOSPI 200 Rebalancing

This post explores the schedule for Posco DX's inclusion in the KOSPI 200 and how we should target the resulting deletion after its transfer...

Sanghyun Park

Long Short Flow Trading Opportunity: TIGER Semicon Top 10 ETF Rebalancing Next Friday

This post explores a Long-Short flow trading opportunity, which will likely be presented next Friday by the TIGER Semicon Top 10 ETF rebalancing.

Sanghyun Park

UMC's 3rd quarter outlook shows a slight upside, with estimated overall utilization at 65-70% and benefits from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple.

Novatek has reserved DDIC for iPhone future shipment, with an expected increase in demand since 3Q24. However, there may be a slowdown in 2Q24 due...