Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

Kato Hong Kong Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The aging population is among the most unarguable mega-trends in today's world and can act as both a powerful headwind and a tailwind (for some industries);</li>
<li>In the past, I have touched upon some businesses benefiting drastically from the demographic tailwind, but admittedly, most of them are well recognized, and hence, expensive;</li>
<li>In this episode, I would like to discuss one more name monetizing the aging population in the Far East;</li>
<li>While being lesser-known, Kato Holdings appears to be a decent candidate to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a multi-bagger in the foreseeable future.</li>
</ul>


The aging population is among the most unarguable mega-trends in today's world and can act as both a powerful headwind and a tailwind (for some industries);
In the past, I have touched upon some businesses benefiting drastically from the demographic tailwind, but admittedly, most of them are well recognized, and hence, expensive;
In this episode, I would like to discuss one more name monetizing the aging population in the Far East;
While being lesser-known, Kato Holdings appears to be a decent candidate to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a multi-bagger in the foreseeable future.


One Hidden Gem Monetizing The Aging Population

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

The shares are down 28% from their 52-week high, but still selling at 75x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. Is it time to buy into the decline? Over the past month, the shares have rebounded by 8%.Nihon M&amp;A Center is more expensive than listed competitors M&amp;A Capital Partners and Strike, but much larger in terms of sales and many times larger in terms of market cap. If you want a liquid play on M&amp;A, this is it.Annual revenue growth has remained above 12% through the COVID-19 pandemic and margins have remained stable. The number of new M&amp;A mandates increased by 15.5% in FY Mar-21 to a level 24% greater than the number of transactions completed.Management's guidance is usually conservative and looks to be so again this year. On a 3-year view, we expect revenues and profits to rise by about 40%. On a 6-year view, they could double.All in all, we think the M&amp;A opportunity in Japan outweighs the risks, which include another wave of COVID infections and macro-economic difficulties.

The shares are down 28% from their 52-week high, but still selling at 75x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. Is it time to buy into the decline? Over the past month, the shares have rebounded by 8%.Nihon M&amp;A Center is more expensive than listed competitors M&amp;A Capital Partners and Strike, but much larger in terms of sales and many times larger in terms of market cap. If you want a liquid play on M&amp;A, this is it.Annual revenue growth has remained above 12% through the COVID-19 pandemic and margins have remained stable. The number of new M&amp;A mandates increased by 15.5% in FY Mar-21 to a level 24% greater than the number of transactions completed.Management's guidance is usually conservative and looks to be so again this year. On a 3-year view, we expect revenues and profits to rise by about 40%. On a 6-year view, they could double.All in all, we think the M&amp;A opportunity in Japan outweighs the risks, which include another wave of COVID infections and macro-economic difficulties.

Nihon M&A (2127 JP): The Most Liquid Way to Play Japan's Structural M&A Opportunity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nihon M&amp;A Center - healthy growth, booming ventures, solid economic moat; </li>
<li>Kakaku.com Inc. - growth momentum has yet to gather;</li>
<li>oRo Co. - resilient growth, continuous shareholder value creation on track.</li>
</ul>


Nihon M&amp;A Center - healthy growth, booming ventures, solid economic moat; 
Kakaku.com Inc. - growth momentum has yet to gather;
oRo Co. - resilient growth, continuous shareholder value creation on track.


Our Takeaways From The Recent Results - Nihon M&A Center, Kakaku.com Inc., ORO Co.

<ul>
<li>The market has been so diligently hitting new highs this year, which may surprise many investors and annoy some like us;</li>
<li>Of course, there is nothing we can do about this, while, on the positive side, we do know what to buy in case of a more favorable market condition;</li>
<li>We put together our wish list for the new year containing top picks that we dream of buying a lot of when their valuations have turned south vastly.</li>
</ul>


The market has been so diligently hitting new highs this year, which may surprise many investors and annoy some like us;
Of course, there is nothing we can do about this, while, on the positive side, we do know what to buy in case of a more favorable market condition;
We put together our wish list for the new year containing top picks that we dream of buying a lot of when their valuations have turned south vastly.


<ul>
<li>Japan's largest M&amp;A advisor for SMEs reported its Q2 results for the current FY ending March 2021;</li>
<li>The company continued to underperform its major peers in growth throughout the pandemic;</li>
<li>The economic moat remained intact, in our opinion, and venturing businesses kept booming;</li>
<li>We see the decline in volume as a major risk to our previous valuation assumption and will keep a close eye in this regard.</li>
</ul>


Japan's largest M&amp;A advisor for SMEs reported its Q2 results for the current FY ending March 2021;
The company continued to underperform its major peers in growth throughout the pandemic;
The economic moat remained intact, in our opinion, and venturing businesses kept booming;
We see the decline in volume as a major risk to our previous valuation assumption and will keep a close eye in this regard.


Nihon M&A Center: Our Takeaways From The Q2 Results

Japan

M&A Capital Partners Co., Ltd. is an M&A advisory firm. The Company provides advisory service in M&A due diligence, business strategy, corporate regeneration, capital increase strategy to support owners of small and medium companies with business succession.

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M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP)

One Hidden Gem Monetizing The Aging Population

While being lesser-known, this Hong Kong-based micro-cap appears fundamentally strong and reasonably priced to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a...

Steven Chen

Nihon M&A (2127 JP): The Most Liquid Way to Play Japan's Structural M&A Opportunity

The most liquid play on Japan's structural M&A opportunity. Share price down 28% from its 52-week high. Not cheap, but sales and profits could rise...

Scott Foster

Our Takeaways From The Recent Results - Nihon M&A Center, Kakaku.com Inc., ORO Co.

Three high-quality Japanese companies on our "Investable Universe" list reported their respective recent-quarter results over the past couple of...

Steven Chen

Our Wish List for 2021

We put together our wish list for 2021 containing top picks that we dream of buying a lot of when their valuations can turn south vastly.

Steven Chen

Nihon M&A Center: Our Takeaways From The Q2 Results

Despite the formidable economic moat, superior profitability, and booming venturing businesses, we would stay cautious concerning the near-term...

Steven Chen

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