IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18367:1" rel="noopener">Elan Corp (6099 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>. M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  </li>
<li>The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.</li>
</ul>



Elan Corp (6099 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with M3 Inc (2413 JP). M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  
The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.


Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.</li>
<li>Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.</li>
</ul>


Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.
Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.
Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On Thursday 29 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a> announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. </li>
<li>In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.</li>
<li>This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. </li>
</ul>


On Thursday 29 August, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. 
In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.
This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. 


Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2024 results. Earnings missed both guidance as well as consensus due to slowdown in Medical Platform and Overseas businesses.</li>
<li>Medical Platform’s earnings declined further in 4Q with spending cuts by pharma companies, and it seems that the segment’s earnings will further decline going forward.</li>
<li>M3’s share price is down 18% YTD, and we do not see many catalysts to drive a rally in the company’s share price.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2024 results. Earnings missed both guidance as well as consensus due to slowdown in Medical Platform and Overseas businesses.
Medical Platform’s earnings declined further in 4Q with spending cuts by pharma companies, and it seems that the segment’s earnings will further decline going forward.
M3’s share price is down 18% YTD, and we do not see many catalysts to drive a rally in the company’s share price.


M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable compared to historical share...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

As we expected, m3 missed its own guidance as well as consensus estimates. Medical Platform's earnings growth has decelerated, and the completion...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable compared to historical share...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

​Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

As we expected, m3 missed its own guidance as well as consensus estimates. Medical Platform's earnings growth has decelerated, and the completion...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...