Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume</li>
<li>In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%</li>
<li>Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context</li>
</ul>


February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume
In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%
Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25</li>
<li>ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns</li>
</ul>


Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y
FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25
ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns


ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

<ul>
<li>As expected, the pace of top-line growth slowed in Q425 following a strategic change in Q325</li>
<li>We're encouraged by the company's strong improvement in Q425 Adjusted OpInc margin</li>
<li>Modest forward PER and strong capital returns suggest BUY closer to US$8 per ADS</li>
</ul>


As expected, the pace of top-line growth slowed in Q425 following a strategic change in Q325
We're encouraged by the company's strong improvement in Q425 Adjusted OpInc margin
Modest forward PER and strong capital returns suggest BUY closer to US$8 per ADS


Full Truck Alliance Q425 Results: Q325 Change Hit Top-Line Growth, but Lifted OPM%; Buy near US$8

<ul>
<li>Solid momentum: the pace of revenue growth slowed in Q425, but still reached 21.9% Y/Y</li>
<li>Owing to poor cost control, Q425 margins fell again, though pace of declines eased</li>
<li>Sigh of relief? Even after Friday's 23% surge, JD Logistics' shares down ~4% vs a year ago</li>
</ul>


Solid momentum: the pace of revenue growth slowed in Q425, but still reached 21.9% Y/Y
Owing to poor cost control, Q425 margins fell again, though pace of declines eased
Sigh of relief? Even after Friday's 23% surge, JD Logistics' shares down ~4% vs a year ago


JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

<ul>
<li>In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics</li>
<li>Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%</li>
<li>We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance</li>
</ul>


In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics
Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%
We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

Combined January-February parcel volume grew by <8%, continuing the trend of sub-10% growth seen in Q425. Under these conditions it will be...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

On March 17 ZTO reported Q425 results that showed a steep decline in profitability, and a possible shift to higher rates of returns to shareholders

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q425 Results: Q325 Change Hit Top-Line Growth, but Lifted OPM%; Buy near US$8

In Q425, top-line growth slowed, but OpInc margin improved dramatically. Trading on 15x forward Adjusted Net Income, and supported by healthy cash...

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics Q425 Earnings: Top-Line Growth Strong, but Margins Shrank on Weak Cost Control

Shares jumped by 23% last Friday after the company disclosed Q425 results that showed solid top-line results but still no end to declining core...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

The monthly operating statistics reported by the four China-listed express companies for January look strange, and we believe they contain lots of...

Tracking Traffic

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