Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19</li>
<li>Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins</li>
<li>On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID</li>
</ul>


ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID


ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals / Event-Driven

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a>, a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone will expire soon.</li>
<li>JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone will expire soon.
JHP Has been ranked as one of the global Top 50 pharmaceutical companies by Pharm Exec for six consecutive years since 2019.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma IPO Lockup - US$850m Cornerstone Release

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cssc-holdings-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2464:1" rel="noopener">China CSSC Holdings</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd-675cb9b4-f4fb-4317-9df7-75e3849a2f5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:885:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jiangsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27216:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Jiangsu</a> in the ETF at the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK). 

Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45945:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (9927 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$131.50 to raise HK$14,283 million (US$1.8 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seres-group-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206418" rel="noopener">Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seres-group-h-share-listing-9927-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:207355" rel="noopener">Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres' AH discount remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



Seres Group (9927 HK) priced its H Share at HK$131.50 to raise HK$14,283 million (US$1.8 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Valuation Insights.
The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres' AH discount remains attractive.


Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). </li>
<li>The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). 
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. 
The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. 


ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

ZTO reported another weak set of results on Wednesday, as margins collapsed in Q3 despite modest pricing improvement. Oh, and management cut volume...

Tracking Traffic

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma IPO Lockup - US$850m Cornerstone Release

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The...

Sumeet Singh

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

There could be 3 changes in Dec - that could increase to 4. Passive impact is 0.1-0.45x ADV but momentum has led to the forecast adds outperforming...

Brian Freitas

ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID

ZTO reported another weak set of results on Wednesday, as margins collapsed in Q3 despite modest pricing improvement. Oh, and management cut volume...

Tracking Traffic

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma IPO Lockup - US$850m Cornerstone Release

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK), a China-based pharmaceutical company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The...

Sumeet Singh

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

There could be 3 changes in Dec - that could increase to 4. Passive impact is 0.1-0.45x ADV but momentum has led to the forecast adds outperforming...

Brian Freitas

Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Trading Debut

The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres' AH...

Arun George

ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George