Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months</li>
<li>We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424</li>
<li>We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space</li>
</ul>


Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

<ul>
<li>SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics</li>
<li>SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com</li>
</ul>


SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics
SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement
JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

<ul>
<li>With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%</li>
<li>SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged</li>
<li>We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T</li>
</ul>


With the exception of SF Holding, all listed express firms reported lower H1 OP%
SF's independence and unique product mix protected profits as volume surged
We suggest going Long SF Hldg against Short positions in ZTO &amp; J&amp;T


Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenue growth &amp; EBITDA margin both improved noticeably vs Q324 </li>
<li>Additionally, ZTO gave FY25 parcel volume guidance that implies an acceleration of growth</li>
<li>But "key" change in revenue mix is crushing cash returns (Q424 OpCF down -28% Y/Y)</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenue growth &amp; EBITDA margin both improved noticeably vs Q324 
Additionally, ZTO gave FY25 parcel volume guidance that implies an acceleration of growth
But "key" change in revenue mix is crushing cash returns (Q424 OpCF down -28% Y/Y)


Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

<ul>
<li>On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results</li>
<li>Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins</li>
<li>We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target</li>
</ul>


On March 5 Chinese freight platform Full Truck Alliance posted another great set of results
Strong Q424 top-line growth was matched by firm OpEx control, leading to higher margins
We've upped our FY25 earnings numbers; we rate YMM a BUY with a US$17/ADS target


Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

We offer a head-to-head comparison of SF Holding and JD Logistics, direct competitors in Chinese e-comm fulfillment that are now both listed in...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express Firms All Saw H1 OPM% Fall -- Except SF Hldg | Pair Trade: LONG SF Vs SHORT ZTO, J&T

SF Holding's unique position within China's eComm fulfillment space allowed it to successfully defend against the margin pressures that afflicted...

Tracking Traffic

Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

ZTO's revenue momentum and core margin improved in Q424, but at the cost of deteriorating Cash Flow. We view the strong recent growth of "key...

Tracking Traffic

Full Truck Alliance Q424 Results: Results > Guidance | New Dividend Policy | TP US$17 Per ADS, BUY

Full Truck Alliance reported impressive Q4 results on Wednesday in the US, featuring stronger-than-expected revenue growth & expert cost control....

Tracking Traffic

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