Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume</li>
<li>In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%</li>
<li>Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context</li>
</ul>


February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume
In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%
Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics</li>
<li>Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%</li>
<li>We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance</li>
</ul>


In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics
Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%
We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

<ul>
<li>Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share</li>
<li>ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs</li>
<li>Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?</li>
</ul>


Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share
ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs
Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

<ul>
<li>A new cross-shareholding agreement between SF and J&amp;T is a neat strategic fit for both</li>
<li>SF gains improved distribution in SE Asia (and beyond), J&amp;T gets access to X-border assets</li>
<li>Listed Chinese express names mostly unaffected, but deal challenges Alibaba, DHL, Flash</li>
</ul>


A new cross-shareholding agreement between SF and J&amp;T is a neat strategic fit for both
SF gains improved distribution in SE Asia (and beyond), J&amp;T gets access to X-border assets
Listed Chinese express names mostly unaffected, but deal challenges Alibaba, DHL, Flash


SF Hldg and J&T Announce New Cross-Shareholding | Good Strategic Fit | Losers Are BABA, DHL, Flash

<ul>
<li>In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+</li>
<li>But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix</li>
<li>Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price</li>
</ul>


In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics' top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+
But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix
Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is "baked in" to price


JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

Combined January-February parcel volume grew by <8%, continuing the trend of sub-10% growth seen in Q425. Under these conditions it will be...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

The monthly operating statistics reported by the four China-listed express companies for January look strange, and we believe they contain lots of...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

China's listed express parcel companies reported highly diverse volume and price data for Q425. The numbers show strong share gains for SF Holding,...

Tracking Traffic

SF Hldg and J&T Announce New Cross-Shareholding | Good Strategic Fit | Losers Are BABA, DHL, Flash

A cross-shareholding agreement between Chinese express firms SF Holding and J&T Global could address each company's weaknesses outside of China....

Tracking Traffic

JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism

Shares have "round tripped" since March 2026 and at HK$10 there appears to be lots of negativity baked into the price. At just 8x consensus 2026F...

Tracking Traffic

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