ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> continues to see improvements not just for its core car rental business but also for rapid momentum behind its move into the last mile through Anteraja, which looks set to account for more than 50% of revenues over the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, earlier than expected.</p>
<p>A Webinar we hosted on Smartkarma with senior management revealed a positive outlook for the business on a number of fronts.</p>
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<p>Despite the impact of the pandemic, the company's car rental business under ASSA Rent saw very little fall out from the COVID-19 pandemic, with the overall fleet increasing by +1% last year and the company has also increased its team of drivers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has also developed a car-sharing App to help to better utilize the fleet, where cars are booked by individuals from its corporate clients.</p>
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<p>ASSA rent will increase the fleet further in 2021 by around +10% to cater for higher demand from government departments, as well as the economic recovery in the coming year. </p>
<p>The company's B2B used car auction business under JBA BidWin Auction had a very strong year in 2020, with volume growth of +30%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> also has a C2C car marketplace called Caroline, which deals with individuals for new and used cars, with financing as an option. </p>
<p>The backbone of the company's third pillar of business is ASSA logistics, which provides fleet management services, trip management, and delivery systems for its corporate customers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a>'s last-mile subsidiary is called Anteraja is the real future growth driver for the company with 300 service points in 34 provinces.  Anteraja partners with all the major e-commerce players but is also seeking to enlarge other segments such as B2B, C2C, and Social Commerce. </p>
<p>In 2020, Anteraja delivered 50m packages recording positive growth in its second year of operation by booking 300,000 packages per day on average by the end of 2020, allowing Anteraja to breakeven by the end of the year. </p>
<p>Anteraja has also launched a number of new initiatives including Bisnisaja, Travylite, and Titipaja, a self-developed e-fulfillment service</p>
<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> takes a positive view on the outlook for this year with positive expectations for revenue growth overall but with the real growth momentum coming from Anteraja.  It trades on 42.2x and 24.4x FY21E and FY22E PER respectively but should be viewed as a transformational growth story crossing into the digital ecosystem, with even higher growth potential in FY2022 according to management. </section>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) continues to see improvements not just for its core car rental business but also for rapid momentum behind its move into the last mile through Anteraja, which looks set to account for more than 50% of revenues over the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, earlier than expected.
A Webinar we hosted on Smartkarma with senior management revealed a positive outlook for the business on a number of fronts.

Despite the impact of the pandemic, the company's car rental business under ASSA Rent saw very little fall out from the COVID-19 pandemic, with the overall fleet increasing by +1% last year and the company has also increased its team of drivers.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has also developed a car-sharing App to help to better utilize the fleet, where cars are booked by individuals from its corporate clients.



ASSA rent will increase the fleet further in 2021 by around +10% to cater for higher demand from government departments, as well as the economic recovery in the coming year. 
The company's B2B used car auction business under JBA BidWin Auction had a very strong year in 2020, with volume growth of +30%.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) also has a C2C car marketplace called Caroline, which deals with individuals for new and used cars, with financing as an option. 
The backbone of the company's third pillar of business is ASSA logistics, which provides fleet management services, trip management, and delivery systems for its corporate customers. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)'s last-mile subsidiary is called Anteraja is the real future growth driver for the company with 300 service points in 34 provinces.  Anteraja partners with all the major e-commerce players but is also seeking to enlarge other segments such as B2B, C2C, and Social Commerce. 
In 2020, Anteraja delivered 50m packages recording positive growth in its second year of operation by booking 300,000 packages per day on average by the end of 2020, allowing Anteraja to breakeven by the end of the year. 
Anteraja has also launched a number of new initiatives including Bisnisaja, Travylite, and Titipaja, a self-developed e-fulfillment service
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) takes a positive view on the outlook for this year with positive expectations for revenue growth overall but with the real growth momentum coming from Anteraja.  It trades on 42.2x and 24.4x FY21E and FY22E PER respectively but should be viewed as a transformational growth story crossing into the digital ecosystem, with even higher growth potential in FY2022 according to management. 












Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - To the Last Mile and Beyond

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>The Kerry Group has been busy of late.</p>
<p>Back in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> IPO'ed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> as discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/uGPdd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery</a></em>.</p>
<p>Last month <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Properties (683 HK)</a> ("KPL") and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> ("KLN") <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0210/2021021000043.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>.  This is an ongoing transaction - see <em><a href="https://skr.ma/D9RK7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer</a></em>. KLN announced last night the composite document has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0308/2021030801425.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> potentially up to the 16 August 201. </p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shangri-la-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19690:1" rel="noopener">Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)</a>, majority-owned by the Kerry Group, is well up on its March 2020 COVID low, and up 9.5% YTD.  Around half of its hotels are in China, which have witnessed a strong uptick in local leisure and corporate traveling, generating positive EBITDA as early as June last year, the first time since the first outbreak of the pandemic.</div>
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<div>Currently trading at 0.6x P/B against a pre-COVID average multiple of 0.8x., this is worth a second look.</div>
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<div>More below the fold.</div>

The Kerry Group has been busy of late.
Back in December, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) IPO'ed Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) as discussed by Sumeet Singh in Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.
Last month Kerry Properties (683 HK) ("KPL") and Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) ("KLN") announced a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  S.F. Holding (002352 CH).  This is an ongoing transaction - see Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer. KLN announced last night the composite document has been delayed potentially up to the 16 August 201. 

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK), majority-owned by the Kerry Group, is well up on its March 2020 COVID low, and up 9.5% YTD.  Around half of its hotels are in China, which have witnessed a strong uptick in local leisure and corporate traveling, generating positive EBITDA as early as June last year, the first time since the first outbreak of the pandemic.

Currently trading at 0.6x P/B against a pre-COVID average multiple of 0.8x., this is worth a second look.

More below the fold.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><strong>Our base case valuation of JD Logistics is EV of 344 billion RMB and implied market cap of 368 billion RMB (US$57 billion).</strong> At an implied market cap of $57 billion, this represents a 43% higher level than the recent valuation of $40 billion mentioned in a recent Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/jd-s-logistics-unit-said-to-mull-ipo-at-40-billion-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article.</a> Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the JD Logistics IPO. </p>
<p>Our high end value of JD Logistics is an implied market cap of 478 billion RMB ($74 billion). So, we think that post the IPO, JD Logistics' market cap could have an <em>"initial pop"</em> to nearly $74 billion, which would be 85% higher than the recently mentioned valuation of $40 billion.</p>
</div><p>We forecast the company to generate revenue of 93.8 billion RMB in 2021 (up 30.2% YoY) and 117.1 billion RMB in 2022 (up 24.8% YoY). We have assumed the company's sales growth rate to decline gradually in the ensuing years and we estimate JD Logistics to generate sales of 184.8 billion RMB in 2025.</p>


Our base case valuation of JD Logistics is EV of 344 billion RMB and implied market cap of 368 billion RMB (US$57 billion). At an implied market cap of $57 billion, this represents a 43% higher level than the recent valuation of $40 billion mentioned in a recent Bloomberg article. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the JD Logistics IPO. 
Our high end value of JD Logistics is an implied market cap of 478 billion RMB ($74 billion). So, we think that post the IPO, JD Logistics' market cap could have an "initial pop" to nearly $74 billion, which would be 85% higher than the recently mentioned valuation of $40 billion.
We forecast the company to generate revenue of 93.8 billion RMB in 2021 (up 30.2% YoY) and 117.1 billion RMB in 2022 (up 24.8% YoY). We have assumed the company's sales growth rate to decline gradually in the ensuing years and we estimate JD Logistics to generate sales of 184.8 billion RMB in 2025.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we opined that JD Logistics' fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we take a first look at JD Logistics' valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.</p></div></div></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we opined that JD Logistics' fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we take a first look at JD Logistics' valuation. Overall, based on our valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured IPO valuation can be justified.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. The other shareholders include Carlyle Group, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, Sequoia Capital and Hillhouse Capital. JD Logistics has filed for a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $4 billion, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. JD Logistics should also benefit from favourable Chinese government policy support for developing integrated supply chain logistics services. Overall, we believe that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. </p></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. The other shareholders include Carlyle Group, Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Sequoia Capital and Hillhouse Capital. JD Logistics has filed for a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $4 billion, according to press reports. JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. JD Logistics should also benefit from favourable Chinese government policy support for developing integrated supply chain logistics services. Overall, we believe that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and remain well-placed to address consumers' demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. 

JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - To the Last Mile and Beyond

ASSA saw growth in its car rental business despite the pandemic but its last-mile delivery business Anteraja is what will drive the long-term...

Angus Mackintosh

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Stay Safe

Based on the average price to book - pre-COVID - I would expect around 33% upside from here, or HK$10.80/share, where it traded as recently as May...

David Blennerhassett

JD Logistics IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of JD Logistics is EV of 344 billion RMB and implied market cap of 368 billion RMB (US$57 billion).

Douglas Kim

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look

JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. We think that the rumoured IPO valuation...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things

JD Logistics has filed for a Hong Kong IPO to raise as much as $4 billion, according to press reports. Overall, we believe that JD Logistics...

Arun George

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