Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmoc-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28168:1" rel="noopener">CMOC Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cssc-holdings-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2464:1" rel="noopener">China CSSC Holdings</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd-675cb9b4-f4fb-4317-9df7-75e3849a2f5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:885:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jiangsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27216:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Jiangsu</a> in the ETF at the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK) / CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK). 

Sungrow Power Supply, CMOC Group and China CSSC Holdings could replace S.F. Holding, China Everbright Bank and Bank of Jiangsu in the ETF at the close on 19 December.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 3 months and it is not even close as the gap has kept getting wider


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, "mid-teens" sales growth</li>
<li>SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store</li>
<li>The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO </li>
</ul>


Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, "mid-teens" sales growth
SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store
The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO 


SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, "Mid-Teens" Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45945:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (9927 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$131.50 to raise HK$14,283 million (US$1.8 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seres-group-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206418" rel="noopener">Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seres-group-h-share-listing-9927-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:207355" rel="noopener">Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres' AH discount remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



Seres Group (9927 HK) priced its H Share at HK$131.50 to raise HK$14,283 million (US$1.8 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Valuation Insights.
The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres' AH discount remains attractive.


Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Trading Debut

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The Time-definite express services are actually a double-edged sword for S.F.- Although it helps S.F. establish core competitiveness, such strategy limits the Company's market share and growth ceiling in China.</li>
<li>The issue here is that S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks, but due to its heavy asset model, the only truly suitable solution is internationalization, which however is full of uncertainties.</li>
<li>S.F. is facing many challenges. The IPO final offer price of HK$34.3 is expensive, which might explain why S.F.'s share price has been a bit “boring” since its listing.</li>
</ul>


The Time-definite express services are actually a double-edged sword for S.F.- Although it helps S.F. establish core competitiveness, such strategy limits the Company's market share and growth ceiling in China.
The issue here is that S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks, but due to its heavy asset model, the only truly suitable solution is internationalization, which however is full of uncertainties.
S.F. is facing many challenges. The IPO final offer price of HK$34.3 is expensive, which might explain why S.F.'s share price has been a bit “boring” since its listing.


S.F. Holding (6936 HK) - Here's Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So "Boring"

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). </li>
<li>The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). 
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. 
The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. 


ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

There could be 3 changes in Dec - that could increase to 4. Passive impact is 0.1-0.45x ADV but momentum has led to the forecast adds outperforming...

Brian Freitas

SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, "Mid-Teens" Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?

Last week, SHEIN reportedly shared FY25 revenue and net income targets with potential investors, which suggests progress towards an IPO. News out...

Tracking Traffic

ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in December

There could be 3 changes in Dec - that could increase to 4. Passive impact is 0.1-0.45x ADV but momentum has led to the forecast adds outperforming...

Brian Freitas

SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, "Mid-Teens" Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?

Last week, SHEIN reportedly shared FY25 revenue and net income targets with potential investors, which suggests progress towards an IPO. News out...

Tracking Traffic

Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Trading Debut

The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres' AH...

Arun George

S.F. Holding (6936 HK) - Here's Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So "Boring"

S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks. Due to heavy asset model, internationalization is the only solution but is full of uncertainties. The IPO...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George