Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener">MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US)</a>, a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25115:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date. </li>
<li>
A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair &amp; reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date. 

A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair &amp; reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.


MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony's Offer

<ul>
<li>Dual-Listed<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener"> MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US)</a>, a NSW copper miner, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250527/pdf/06k4vk25mz8lm4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25115:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. </li>
<li>The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. 
The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.


MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): Harmony Makes A Move

<ul>
<li>I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-west-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:804:1" rel="noopener">Seven West Media (SWM AU)</a>'s, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carenet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4001:1" rel="noopener">Carenet Inc (2150 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Seven West Media (SWM AU)'s, Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), and Spindex Industries (SPE SP).
Key updates/news took place on ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

<ul>
<li>Late Friday (26th September), precision parts manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder (74.95%).</li>
<li>The Tan's are offering S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed, and a decade-high price.  The Offer is backed by PE outfit PrimeMovers Equity.</li>
<li>Clean deal. No competing Offer will emerge. I estimate payment mid-Jan 2026.</li>
</ul>


Late Friday (26th September), precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder (74.95%).
The Tan's are offering S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed, and a decade-high price.  The Offer is backed by PE outfit PrimeMovers Equity.
Clean deal. No competing Offer will emerge. I estimate payment mid-Jan 2026.


Australia

MAC Copper Limited operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on acquiring and operating copper, silver, and minerals assets. MAC Copper serves customers worldwide.

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MAC Copper (MAC AU)

MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony's Offer

Both legs have the same gross/annual. spreads of 1.5%/7.9%, assuming early Oct payment. There will be nominal costs to be netted off the CDI...

David Blennerhassett

MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): Harmony Makes A Move

Optically, it's not a knock-out offer. But ~20% of the register's support is still 20%. And this is a large deal. No apparent FIRB concerns This...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Soft99, Seven West Media, ReNew Energy Global, Spindex Industries

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Spindex Industries (SPE SP)'s Clean MBO

Super clean deal. If super illiquid arbs are your bag, get involved at S$1.37/share or better, assuming a four month off-ramp.

David Blennerhassett

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