Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calb-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35985:1" rel="noopener">CALB (3931 HK)</a>'s weak debut. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a> will open its books for its THB17.4 billion (US$462 million) from 10 to 25 October.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/o2micro-international-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36418:1" rel="noopener">O2Micro International (OIIM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - CALB (3931 HK)'s weak debut. Betagro (BTG TB) will open its books for its THB17.4 billion (US$462 million) from 10 to 25 October.
Event-Driven developments - Link Administration (LNK AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM), O2Micro International (OIIM US), Singapore Medical (SMG SP). 


Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) - Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-space-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onetwo (2602 HK)</a> poor debuts. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calb-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35985:1" rel="noopener">CALB (3931 HK)</a> prices at the low-end.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evoc-intelligent-technology-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2015:1" rel="noopener">EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Leapmotor (9863 HK) and Onetwo (2602 HK) poor debuts. CALB (3931 HK) prices at the low-end.
Event-Driven developments - SATS (SATS SP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK), Tassal (TGR AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (02 Oct) - SATS, Jinke Smart, EVOC, Fengxiang, Tassal, MACA, Growatt, CALB

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Diversified contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a> announced a friendly off-market cash offer from fellow contractor Thiess on the 26 July, at A$1.025/share, a 28.1% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>After MACA rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a>'s non-binding proposal (with an implied consideration of $1.085/share), Thiess lifted its all-cash Offer to A$1.075/share. NRW subsequently <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02561122-6A1106889?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">walked</a>.</li>
<li>The Offer was conditional on Thiess having a relevant interest in more than 90% of MACA. That condition has been waived and the Offer is now Unconditional.</li>
</ul>


Diversified contractor MACA Ltd (MLD AU) announced a friendly off-market cash offer from fellow contractor Thiess on the 26 July, at A$1.025/share, a 28.1% premium to the undisturbed price.  
After MACA rejected NRW Holdings (NWH AU)'s non-binding proposal (with an implied consideration of $1.085/share), Thiess lifted its all-cash Offer to A$1.075/share. NRW subsequently walked.
The Offer was conditional on Thiess having a relevant interest in more than 90% of MACA. That condition has been waived and the Offer is now Unconditional.


MACA: Thiess Declares Offer Unconditional

<ul>
<li>Theiss’ offer of A$1.075 per share for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a> has been declared unconditional despite acquiring 44.30% of outstanding shares, below the 50% threshold.</li>
<li>The offer has met with resistance from retail shareholders as it remains below NRW’s rejected offer, and there is a lack of clarity on franking credits. </li>
<li>Thiess can restart on-market purchases from 27 September. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with the offer.</li>
</ul>


Theiss’ offer of A$1.075 per share for MACA Ltd (MLD AU) has been declared unconditional despite acquiring 44.30% of outstanding shares, below the 50% threshold.
The offer has met with resistance from retail shareholders as it remains below NRW’s rejected offer, and there is a lack of clarity on franking credits. 
Thiess can restart on-market purchases from 27 September. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with the offer.


MACA’s A$1.075 Offer from Theiss Declared Unconditional

Australia

MACA Limited offers contract mining, civil earthworks, and material haulage solutions. The Company specializes in providing mining services to predominantly mid-size mining projects for open pit mining including loading and hauling, drilling and blasting, crushing and screening, and civil works.

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MACA Ltd (MLD AU)

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

Weekly Deals Digest (09 Oct) - Betagro, Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, SMG

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Link Admin, Tyro, MACA, Eagle Cement, O2Micro, Singapore Medical) and ECM (Betagro, CALB).

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Oct) - SATS, Jinke Smart, EVOC, Fengxiang, Tassal, MACA, Growatt, CALB

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (SATS, Jinke Smart, EVOC, Fengxiang, Tassal, MACA, Nearmap, Ramsay, Infomedia) and ECM...

Arun George

MACA: Thiess Declares Offer Unconditional

Trading at terms. This is unlikely to change. Unless you can take advantage of any franking credits - assuming such a dividend actually takes place...

David Blennerhassett

MACA’s A$1.075 Offer from Theiss Declared Unconditional

The offer declared unconditional is an inducement to get shareholders to accept. The offer closes on 7 October. The shares are trading in line with...

Arun George

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