Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough.  There is still considerable uncertainty both from the COVID pandemic and from the on-again, off-again US/China Trade War.

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough.  There is still considerable uncertainty both from the COVID pandemic and from the on-again, off-again US/China Trade War.

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Over the past few quarters leading DRAM and NAND flash makers have outlined their plans to cut wafer production by small percentages.  This can easily be misread as an equivalent reduction in output.  Instead, the output reduction is always significantly less, perhaps even trivial.  This SmartKarma Insight explains why this is the case and helps the investor to understand how to read these statements.

Over the past few quarters leading DRAM and NAND flash makers have outlined their plans to cut wafer production by small percentages.  This can easily be misread as an equivalent reduction in output.  Instead, the output reduction is always significantly less, perhaps even trivial.  This SmartKarma Insight explains why this is the case and helps the investor to understand how to read these statements.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
 Memory's price surge stalled month-over-month. The median memory name's sequential revenue growth fell from +32% in April to +4% in May, back at its no-cycle baseline.</li>
<li>
 The PC pull-forward could be unwinding a quarter early. Acer's and ASUS's revenue both fell roughly 16% month-over-month, against positive seasonality, with neither company commenting.</li>
<li>
 AI server demand is so far untouched, and it is not lifting everything. A fifth straight month of ramp, Hon Hai re-accelerating, a record TSMC month.</li>
</ul>



 Memory's price surge stalled month-over-month. The median memory name's sequential revenue growth fell from +32% in April to +4% in May, back at its no-cycle baseline.

 The PC pull-forward could be unwinding a quarter early. Acer's and ASUS's revenue both fell roughly 16% month-over-month, against positive seasonality, with neither company commenting.

 AI server demand is so far untouched, and it is not lifting everything. A fifth straight month of ramp, Hon Hai re-accelerating, a record TSMC month.


Taiwan Revenue Signals -- Memory Growth Stalls While AI Servers Remain Robust

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 5th. The aggregated holding was USD2,282.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,589mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 5th. The aggregated holding was USD2,282.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,589mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond Electronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 5th): TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond Electronics

Taiwan

Macronix International Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) as well as memory products.  The Company's products include nonvolatile memory integrated circuits, mask ROM (Read Only Memory), EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), and flash memory products.  Macronix also produces logic ICs for audio, clock generators, and graphic application devices.

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Macronix International (2337 TT)

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough. There is still considerable uncertainty both from the...

Jim Handy

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

What a 5% DRAM Wafer Cut Really Means

Over the past few quarters leading DRAM and NAND flash makers have outlined their plans to cut wafer production by small percentages. This can...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Revenue Signals -- Memory Growth Stalls While AI Servers Remain Robust

Memory prices stalled, PC pull-forward unwinding early, AI server demand remains strong but not boosting all sectors. We analyze the Taiwan AI...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 5th): TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond Electronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough. There is still considerable uncertainty both from the...

Jim Handy

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

What a 5% DRAM Wafer Cut Really Means

Over the past few quarters leading DRAM and NAND flash makers have outlined their plans to cut wafer production by small percentages. This can...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Revenue Signals -- Memory Growth Stalls While AI Servers Remain Robust

​Memory prices stalled, PC pull-forward unwinding early, AI server demand remains strong but not boosting all sectors. We analyze the Taiwan AI...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 5th): TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond Electronics

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, UMC, Quanta Computer, MediaTek, Winbond...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Memory prices stalled, PC pull-forward unwinding early, AI server demand remains strong but not boosting all sectors. We analyze the Taiwan AI...