Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-corp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12691:1" rel="noopener">Credit Corp (CCP AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magellan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20459:1" rel="noopener">Magellan Financial (MFG AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: This Insight challenges the typical mean-reversion narrative—strong momentum, company fundamentals, and catalysts suggest the pair could set up either way.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and statistical signals supporting this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: This Insight challenges the typical mean-reversion narrative—strong momentum, company fundamentals, and catalysts suggest the pair could set up either way.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and statistical signals supporting this relative value play.


Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up on the relative value trade between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-corp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12691:1" rel="noopener">Credit Corp (CCP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magellan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20459:1" rel="noopener">Magellan Financial (MFG AU)</a>, originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.</li>
<li>
Highlight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-corp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12691:1" rel="noopener">Credit Corp (CCP AU)</a> surged 16.2% post-earnings, driving the pair to close with a 19.1% return in just 7 days. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Demonstrates how mean-reversion setups can still outperform, even in the presence of strong momentum. A valuable Insight for relative value traders navigating trend-heavy environments.</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up on the relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU), originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.

Highlight: Credit Corp (CCP AU) surged 16.2% post-earnings, driving the pair to close with a 19.1% return in just 7 days. 

Why Read: Demonstrates how mean-reversion setups can still outperform, even in the presence of strong momentum. A valuable Insight for relative value traders navigating trend-heavy environments.


Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 22 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.</li>
<li>The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction. </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.</li>
</ul>


On 22 July, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with CC Capital at A$4.80, a 4.0% discount to its previous non-binding offer of A$5.00.
The key conditions are regulatory (APRA, FIRB, ACCC, FCA) and shareholder approvals. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction. 
The offer is reasonable in comparison to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transaction multiples. The timing of regulatory approvals is the key risk.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

<ul>
<li>On 7 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.</li>
<li>The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.</li>
</ul>


On 7 March, Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from Bain and CC Capital at A$5.00, an 8.7% premium to their previous A$4.60 offer.
The exclusive due diligence period ends on 17 April (six weeks from signing the exclusivity deed). The Board will recommend a binding offer of at least A$5.00. 
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. Therefore, a binding offer would gain shareholder support.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

Australia

Magellan Financial Group Ltd operates as an investment management company. The Company invests in global equities and listed infrastructure. Magellan Financial Group serves customers worldwide.

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Magellan Financial (MFG AU)

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum

Insight highlights potential relative value opportunity in Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU), challenging the mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return

Relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU) delivers 19.1% return in just 7 days following earnings pop.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)

Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

Timing is the key risk as the offer is long-dated. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction and the turnaround plan...

Arun George

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. The presence of two bidders increases the...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum

Insight highlights potential relative value opportunity in Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU), challenging the mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return

Relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU) delivers 19.1% return in just 7 days following earnings pop.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (04 Aug)

​Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital’s Binding Offer at A$4.80

Timing is the key risk as the offer is long-dated. Shareholders should be supportive as the offer resulted from an auction and the turnaround plan...

Arun George

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain and CC Capital Bumps to A$5.00, While Brookfield Drops Out

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. The presence of two bidders increases the...

Arun George

Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.