External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.</li><li>Robust performance in the industrial segment would further support its growth trajectory.</li><li>However, margins could taper off given the falling domestic gas allocation, while the possibility of fuel price cuts could impact its competitive positioning.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.Robust performance in the industrial segment would further support its growth trajectory.However, margins could taper off given the falling domestic gas allocation, while the possibility of fuel price cuts could impact its competitive positioning.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas - Steady Volume Growth, but Lower Margins Likely

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3M</li><li>We expect strong volume growth to continue to drive stock price outperformance</li><li>We anticipate that the robust CNG vehicle registration data, accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing geographical areas (GAs), volume growth contribution from the acquired three GAs of Unison Enviro (UEPL) and competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel will support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3MWe expect strong volume growth to continue to drive stock price outperformanceWe anticipate that the robust CNG vehicle registration data, accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing geographical areas (GAs), volume growth contribution from the acquired three GAs of Unison Enviro (UEPL) and competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel will support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26EContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Picking Up, Maintain Buy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas Ltd.’s (MAHGL) EBITDA decreased 20% YoY to INR4.2b in 1QFY25, mainly driven by a 29% YoY dip in EBITDA/scm to INR11.9 (MOSL est: INR 10.9).</li><li>Volumes grew 13% YoY to 3.9mmscmd driven by CNG and I/C-PNG. Key highlights from the conference call: 1) EBITDA/scm came in strong despite APM gas allocation below 70% in 1QFY25, 2) management guidance on both margin and volume growth remains conservative at 7% volume growth (ex-UEPL) and INR10-12 EBITDA/scm, 3) volume growth at UEPL is in mid-teens and can sustain for the next 6-7 years, 4) MAHGL is looking to add 75 stations in FY25 on a base of ~400 stations (incl. UEPL), 5) MAHGL guided an improved volume outlook in 2Q/3QFY25, besides margin support from CNG price hikes taken in early Jul’24.</li><li>Outlook We expect a 7% CAGR in volume over FY24-26, driven by multiple initiatives implemented by the company, such as partnering with OEMs to drive conversions of commercial CNG vehicles and providing guaranteed price discounts to new I/C-PNG customers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas Ltd.’s (MAHGL) EBITDA decreased 20% YoY to INR4.2b in 1QFY25, mainly driven by a 29% YoY dip in EBITDA/scm to INR11.9 (MOSL est: INR 10.9).Volumes grew 13% YoY to 3.9mmscmd driven by CNG and I/C-PNG. Key highlights from the conference call: 1) EBITDA/scm came in strong despite APM gas allocation below 70% in 1QFY25, 2) management guidance on both margin and volume growth remains conservative at 7% volume growth (ex-UEPL) and INR10-12 EBITDA/scm, 3) volume growth at UEPL is in mid-teens and can sustain for the next 6-7 years, 4) MAHGL is looking to add 75 stations in FY25 on a base of ~400 stations (incl. UEPL), 5) MAHGL guided an improved volume outlook in 2Q/3QFY25, besides margin support from CNG price hikes taken in early Jul’24.Outlook We expect a 7% CAGR in volume over FY24-26, driven by multiple initiatives implemented by the company, such as partnering with OEMs to drive conversions of commercial CNG vehicles and providing guaranteed price discounts to new I/C-PNG customers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas - Volume/Margin Surpass Guidance

<ul><li>The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~15% and outperformed the Sensex by ~8% in the last 3M</li><li>However, despite this performance, we estimate the current market price factors only ~5% volume growth</li><li>We anticipate the accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing and new geographical areas (GAs), the acquisition of Unison Enviro’s (UEPL) three GAs, competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel, and robust CNG vehicle registrations data should support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~15% and outperformed the Sensex by ~8% in the last 3MHowever, despite this performance, we estimate the current market price factors only ~5% volume growthWe anticipate the accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing and new geographical areas (GAs), the acquisition of Unison Enviro’s (UEPL) three GAs, competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel, and robust CNG vehicle registrations data should support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Levers in Place. Maintain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas (MGL) hosted its analyst meet on 7-Jun-24, highlighting its strong FY24 performance, and guided to a steady 5-year volume CAGR of 6- 7%/&gt;10% in standalone (SA)/Unison Enviro (UEPL) vs.~5% during FY19-24.</li><li>Management indicated a clear focus on infrastructure creation to spur demand growth, with capex target for FY25 at Rs10bn—split between SA and UEPL at Rs8bn and Rs2bn, respectively.</li><li>APM gas allocation is ~70% of priority vol.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) hosted its analyst meet on 7-Jun-24, highlighting its strong FY24 performance, and guided to a steady 5-year volume CAGR of 6- 7%/&gt;10% in standalone (SA)/Unison Enviro (UEPL) vs.~5% during FY19-24.Management indicated a clear focus on infrastructure creation to spur demand growth, with capex target for FY25 at Rs10bn—split between SA and UEPL at Rs8bn and Rs2bn, respectively.APM gas allocation is ~70% of priority vol.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas - Thrust on Core, Combined with New Forays

India

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) distributes natural gas. The Company provides gas to domestic customers such as hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, flight kitchens, and restaurants. MGL serves customers in India.

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Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN)

Mahanagar Gas - Steady Volume Growth, but Lower Margins Likely

Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Picking Up, Maintain Buy

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3M. We expect strong volume growth to continue...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas - Volume/Margin Surpass Guidance

The stock trades at 13.5x FY26E EPS of INR136.9. We value it at 16x FY26E EPS to arrive at our TP of INR2,200. Reiterate BUY.

Motilal Oswal

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Levers in Place. Maintain BUY

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~15% and outperformed the Sensex by ~8% in the last 3M. However, despite this performance, we...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas - Thrust on Core, Combined with New Forays

Management indicated a clear focus on infrastructure creation to spur demand growth, with capex target for FY25 at Rs10bn—split between SA and UEPL...

Emkay

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