External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Q1FY27 EBITDA/scm recovered sequentially by 29% QoQ to Rs 7.82/scm (down 37% YoY from a high base of Rs 12.49/scm in Q1FY26), as gas cost/scm rose further to Rs 39.85/scm (Q4FY26: Rs 35.10/scm; Q1FY26: Rs 32.20/scm) on continued dependence on pooled gas ($12.50–$13/MMBTU) and Brent-linked contracts ($13–$14/MMBTU) through the West Asia crisis.</li><li>The QoQ improvement was driven by (i) the full-quarter benefit of the cumulative Rs 5/kg CNG price hike taken since February, against only a partial-quarter impact in Q4FY26, and (ii) a sharp I&amp;C realisation increase of Rs 27–32/scm (~70–80% YoY) as Brent averaged $95–100/bbl in Q1FY27 versus $60–63/bbl in Q4FY26.</li><li>Management flagged that near-term margins remain difficult to call given the crisis reignited in early July, but reiterated its structural endeavour to sustain EBITDA/scm in the Rs 8–9/scm range over the longer term.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY27 EBITDA/scm recovered sequentially by 29% QoQ to Rs 7.82/scm (down 37% YoY from a high base of Rs 12.49/scm in Q1FY26), as gas cost/scm rose further to Rs 39.85/scm (Q4FY26: Rs 35.10/scm; Q1FY26: Rs 32.20/scm) on continued dependence on pooled gas ($12.50–$13/MMBTU) and Brent-linked contracts ($13–$14/MMBTU) through the West Asia crisis.The QoQ improvement was driven by (i) the full-quarter benefit of the cumulative Rs 5/kg CNG price hike taken since February, against only a partial-quarter impact in Q4FY26, and (ii) a sharp I&amp;C realisation increase of Rs 27–32/scm (~70–80% YoY) as Brent averaged $95–100/bbl in Q1FY27 versus $60–63/bbl in Q4FY26.Management flagged that near-term margins remain difficult to call given the crisis reignited in early July, but reiterated its structural endeavour to sustain EBITDA/scm in the Rs 8–9/scm range over the longer term.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: QoQ Margin Recovery Led by Higher Realizations; Volume Trajectory Largely Intact

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) is one of India's leading city gas distribution (CGD) companies, incorporated in 1995.</li><li>The company distributes natural gas through an extensive CGD network of pipelines, supplying Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to the transport segment and Piped Natural Gas (PNG) to domestic, commercial and industrial customers (C&amp;I), alongside a growing LNG retailing business.</li><li>A. Q4 Margin Pressure Reflects a One-Off Supply Shock, Not a Structural Break: In Q4FY26, EBITDA/scm fell 38%/25% YoY/QoQ to Rs 6.2/scm as the West Asia crisis disrupted RLNG supply from mid-March and triggered a government pool mechanism that curtailed MGL's Henry Hub-linked term contracts, pushing gas cost/scm to Rs 35.2/scm.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) is one of India's leading city gas distribution (CGD) companies, incorporated in 1995.The company distributes natural gas through an extensive CGD network of pipelines, supplying Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to the transport segment and Piped Natural Gas (PNG) to domestic, commercial and industrial customers (C&amp;I), alongside a growing LNG retailing business.A. Q4 Margin Pressure Reflects a One-Off Supply Shock, Not a Structural Break: In Q4FY26, EBITDA/scm fell 38%/25% YoY/QoQ to Rs 6.2/scm as the West Asia crisis disrupted RLNG supply from mid-March and triggered a government pool mechanism that curtailed MGL's Henry Hub-linked term contracts, pushing gas cost/scm to Rs 35.2/scm.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICK OF THE WEEK: Mahanagar Gas Ltd - 20th June, 2026

<ul><li>Despite higher Henry Hub (HH) gas prices, EBITDA/scm improved by 4% QoQ (down 1% YoY) to Rs 8.3/scm.</li><li>MGL optimized its sourcing mix, replacing high-cost HH with HPHT or spot gas where viable.</li><li>Management noted that lower Brent prices provided a 20-cent saving on linked contracts, which more than offset the 1.4-cent rise in HH costs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite higher Henry Hub (HH) gas prices, EBITDA/scm improved by 4% QoQ (down 1% YoY) to Rs 8.3/scm.MGL optimized its sourcing mix, replacing high-cost HH with HPHT or spot gas where viable.Management noted that lower Brent prices provided a 20-cent saving on linked contracts, which more than offset the 1.4-cent rise in HH costs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas Ltd - Largely Inline Q3; Volume Growth on Track

<ul><li>EBITDA Contracts due to Higher Fuel Costs: The company’s EBITDA/scm was down 25%/35% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8/scm mainly led by higher gas cost.</li><li>The increase in gas cost was led by – (i) Change in gas mix – higher volumes led to a higher weighted average cost due to reliance on spot RLNG and HPHT.</li><li>APM and NWG allocation declined QoQ in Q2FY26 (APM from 1.7 mmscmd to 1.68 mmscmd and NWG from 0.5 mmscmd to 0.35 mmscmd; (ii) Depreciation of Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollars by 2 Rs QoQ in Q2FY26; (iii) Increase in unified base price, the effective APM price post co-mingling with CBG Gas was up to $7/mmbtu despite the upper cap of $6.75/mmbtu.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EBITDA Contracts due to Higher Fuel Costs: The company’s EBITDA/scm was down 25%/35% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8/scm mainly led by higher gas cost.The increase in gas cost was led by – (i) Change in gas mix – higher volumes led to a higher weighted average cost due to reliance on spot RLNG and HPHT.APM and NWG allocation declined QoQ in Q2FY26 (APM from 1.7 mmscmd to 1.68 mmscmd and NWG from 0.5 mmscmd to 0.35 mmscmd; (ii) Depreciation of Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollars by 2 Rs QoQ in Q2FY26; (iii) Increase in unified base price, the effective APM price post co-mingling with CBG Gas was up to $7/mmbtu despite the upper cap of $6.75/mmbtu.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas Ltd - Margins Contract, Volume Growth Remains Robust

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q3FY26 Earnings Review: Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50, while Nifty500 and Nifty Small Cap 250 growth stood at 13% and 29% respectively.</li><li>Financials delivered steady performance supported by robust credit growth and stable asset quality.</li><li>Capital goods and infrastructure names reported strong order inflows, reflecting continued momentum in public and private capex. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q3FY26 Earnings Review: Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50, while Nifty500 and Nifty Small Cap 250 growth stood at 13% and 29% respectively.Financials delivered steady performance supported by robust credit growth and stable asset quality.Capital goods and infrastructure names reported strong order inflows, reflecting continued momentum in public and private capex. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the month of March 2026

India

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) is an Indian city gas distribution (CGD) company that provides clean energy solutions. It is the sole authorized distributor of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for vehicles and Piped Natural Gas (PNG) for domestic, commercial, and industrial use in Mumbai, its adjoining areas, and the Raigad district in Maharashtra, India. The company was founded on May 8, 1995, and is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.

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Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN)

Mahanagar Gas: QoQ Margin Recovery Led by Higher Realizations; Volume Trajectory Largely Intact

We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available...

Axis Direct

PICK OF THE WEEK: Mahanagar Gas Ltd - 20th June, 2026

The company distributes natural gas through an extensive CGD network of pipelines, supplying Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to the transport segment...

Axis Direct

Mahanagar Gas Ltd - Largely Inline Q3; Volume Growth on Track

Despite higher Henry Hub (HH) gas prices, EBITDA/scm improved by 4% QoQ (down 1% YoY) to Rs 8.3/scm. MGL optimized its sourcing mix, replacing high...

Axis Direct

Mahanagar Gas Ltd - Margins Contract, Volume Growth Remains Robust

EBITDA Contracts due to Higher Fuel Costs: The company’s EBITDA/scm was down 25%/35% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8/scm mainly led by higher gas cost.

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks for the month of March 2026

Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50

Axis Direct

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