External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~15% and outperformed the Sensex by ~8% in the last 3M</li><li>However, despite this performance, we estimate the current market price factors only ~5% volume growth</li><li>We anticipate the accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing and new geographical areas (GAs), the acquisition of Unison Enviro’s (UEPL) three GAs, competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel, and robust CNG vehicle registrations data should support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~15% and outperformed the Sensex by ~8% in the last 3MHowever, despite this performance, we estimate the current market price factors only ~5% volume growthWe anticipate the accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing and new geographical areas (GAs), the acquisition of Unison Enviro’s (UEPL) three GAs, competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel, and robust CNG vehicle registrations data should support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Levers in Place. Maintain BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas (MGL) hosted its analyst meet on 7-Jun-24, highlighting its strong FY24 performance, and guided to a steady 5-year volume CAGR of 6- 7%/&gt;10% in standalone (SA)/Unison Enviro (UEPL) vs.~5% during FY19-24.</li><li>Management indicated a clear focus on infrastructure creation to spur demand growth, with capex target for FY25 at Rs10bn—split between SA and UEPL at Rs8bn and Rs2bn, respectively.</li><li>APM gas allocation is ~70% of priority vol.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) hosted its analyst meet on 7-Jun-24, highlighting its strong FY24 performance, and guided to a steady 5-year volume CAGR of 6- 7%/&gt;10% in standalone (SA)/Unison Enviro (UEPL) vs.~5% during FY19-24.Management indicated a clear focus on infrastructure creation to spur demand growth, with capex target for FY25 at Rs10bn—split between SA and UEPL at Rs8bn and Rs2bn, respectively.APM gas allocation is ~70% of priority vol.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas - Thrust on Core, Combined with New Forays

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 550, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins and (2) moderation in refining margins</li><li>Q4FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 92.1bn and reported PAT at INR 42.2bn, coming in below our estimate</li><li>Impairment loss of INR 18bn, lower refining margins, higher other expenses and inventory loss impacted earnings</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 550, owing to the risk of (1) lower auto-fuel marketing margins and (2) moderation in refining marginsQ4FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 92.1bn and reported PAT at INR 42.2bn, coming in below our estimateImpairment loss of INR 18bn, lower refining margins, higher other expenses and inventory loss impacted earningsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Eicher Motors

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock recently corrected ~19% from its peak, owing to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) notice on the end of MGL’s infrastructure exclusivity in the Mumbai GA</li><li>We believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity for investors</li><li>We expect MGL’s outperformance to sustain, driven by (1) a pick-up in volume growth and (2) robust margins</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock recently corrected ~19% from its peak, owing to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) notice on the end of MGL’s infrastructure exclusivity in the Mumbai GAWe believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity for investorsWe expect MGL’s outperformance to sustain, driven by (1) a pick-up in volume growth and (2) robust marginsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Resilience Amid Regulatory Headwinds. Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin, and (3) attractive valuation</li><li>Q3FY24 EBITDA, at INR 4.5bn (+75% YoY, -6% QoQ), and APAT at INR 3.2bn (+84% YoY, -6% QoQ), came well above our estimates, owing to higher-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margins.</li><li>Our target price of INR 1,550/sh is based on Mar-25E free cash flow (WACC 12%, terminal growth rate 1%). The stock is currently trading at 10.5x Mar-25E EPS. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin, and (3) attractive valuationQ3FY24 EBITDA, at INR 4.5bn (+75% YoY, -6% QoQ), and APAT at INR 3.2bn (+84% YoY, -6% QoQ), came well above our estimates, owing to higher-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margins.Our target price of INR 1,550/sh is based on Mar-25E free cash flow (WACC 12%, terminal growth rate 1%). The stock is currently trading at 10.5x Mar-25E EPS. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (Q3FY24): Volume Growth Improves. Maintain BUY

India

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) distributes natural gas. The Company provides gas to domestic customers such as hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, flight kitchens, and restaurants. MGL serves customers in India.

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Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN)

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Levers in Place. Maintain BUY

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~15% and outperformed the Sensex by ~8% in the last 3M. However, despite this performance, we...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas - Thrust on Core, Combined with New Forays

Management indicated a clear focus on infrastructure creation to spur demand growth, with capex target for FY25 at Rs10bn—split between SA and UEPL...

Emkay

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Eicher Motors

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 550, owing to the risk of (1)...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas: Resilience Amid Regulatory Headwinds. Maintain BUY

We believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas (Q3FY24): Volume Growth Improves. Maintain BUY

Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin,...

HDFC Securities

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