Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tractor volume continued to be strong in Feb’25.Favorable reservoir level,strong sowing for the Rabi season and government support are expected to drive good demand for tractors in the medium term.</li>
<li>We summarize the sales volume published by listed players <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> in February 2025.</li>
<li>Positive management commentary augurs well for uptick in tractor OEM stocks and related auto ancillary companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gna-axles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28070:1" rel="noopener">GNA Axles Ltd (GNA IN)</a> in medium term.</li>
</ul>


Tractor volume continued to be strong in Feb’25.Favorable reservoir level,strong sowing for the Rabi season and government support are expected to drive good demand for tractors in the medium term.
We summarize the sales volume published by listed players Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) and Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) in February 2025.
Positive management commentary augurs well for uptick in tractor OEM stocks and related auto ancillary companies like GNA Axles Ltd (GNA IN) in medium term.


Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Tractor Firms – February 2025; Strong Show Continues

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>MM reported an in-line operating performance in 3QFY25. EBITDA margin expanded 160bp YoY to 14.6% (est. 14.2%) led by improved mix.</li><li>The Farm Equipment Segment’s (FES) core PBIT margin stood at an impressive 18.1% (+260bp YoY), while the auto segment’s margin expanded 120bp YoY to 9.7%.</li><li>We believe MM is well placed to outperform across its core businesses, driven by a healthy recovery in rural and new product launches in both UVs and tractors.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MM reported an in-line operating performance in 3QFY25. EBITDA margin expanded 160bp YoY to 14.6% (est. 14.2%) led by improved mix.The Farm Equipment Segment’s (FES) core PBIT margin stood at an impressive 18.1% (+260bp YoY), while the auto segment’s margin expanded 120bp YoY to 9.7%.We believe MM is well placed to outperform across its core businesses, driven by a healthy recovery in rural and new product launches in both UVs and tractors.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra and Mahindra - Operationally in Line; Healthy Margin Expansion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>M&amp;M’s Q3FY25 Standalone revenue grew by 20.3% YoY, in line with consensus estimates, while it was 2.1% lower than PLe.</li><li>The growth in revenue was aided by strong performance in the Auto and Farm division.</li><li>Gross profit grew by 23.8%YoY while margin expanded by 72bps YoY to 25.6% (PLe: 26.2%), benefiting from higher volume and mix improvement.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

M&amp;M’s Q3FY25 Standalone revenue grew by 20.3% YoY, in line with consensus estimates, while it was 2.1% lower than PLe.The growth in revenue was aided by strong performance in the Auto and Farm division.Gross profit grew by 23.8%YoY while margin expanded by 72bps YoY to 25.6% (PLe: 26.2%), benefiting from higher volume and mix improvement.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) - Strong Margin Expansion Across Divisions

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Mahindra &amp; Mahindra’s (M&amp;M) EBITDA margin at 14.4% was up ~20bps QoQ (vs consensus estimate of 14.7%); auto segment’s EBIT margin was up 20bps QoQ at 9.7%, and FES EBIT margin increased 60bps QoQ to 18.1%.</li><li>During 9MFY25, M&amp;M’s PV portfolio saw strong growth of ~20%; it is looking at debottlenecking specific capacity for models like XUV3XO and Thar.</li><li>We expect M&amp;M to continue its strong performance led by its robust UV portfolio, market share gains in both SUV and tractors, improving margin trajectory, and better outlook in FES.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra &amp; Mahindra’s (M&amp;M) EBITDA margin at 14.4% was up ~20bps QoQ (vs consensus estimate of 14.7%); auto segment’s EBIT margin was up 20bps QoQ at 9.7%, and FES EBIT margin increased 60bps QoQ to 18.1%.During 9MFY25, M&amp;M’s PV portfolio saw strong growth of ~20%; it is looking at debottlenecking specific capacity for models like XUV3XO and Thar.We expect M&amp;M to continue its strong performance led by its robust UV portfolio, market share gains in both SUV and tractors, improving margin trajectory, and better outlook in FES.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra and Mahindra - In-Line Performance; New Launches to Drive Growth

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We challenge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> 's narrative of strong demand and booking pipeline (140k+ open bookings, excl Scorpio N as of Q1 FY23) </li>
<li>There is a possibility of a monthly booking rate of 10.3k for XUV700 and 5K per month for Thar being overstated. </li>
<li>With increasing competition (MSIL + Toyota), cancellations will increase leading to even lower waiting periods and a reduced booking pipeline. </li>
</ul>


We challenge Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) 's narrative of strong demand and booking pipeline (140k+ open bookings, excl Scorpio N as of Q1 FY23) 
There is a possibility of a monthly booking rate of 10.3k for XUV700 and 5K per month for Thar being overstated. 
With increasing competition (MSIL + Toyota), cancellations will increase leading to even lower waiting periods and a reduced booking pipeline. 


Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | The Bookings Fallacy

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Monthly Sales Overview of Indian Listed Tractor Firms – February 2025; Strong Show Continues

Strong tractor sales in Feb’25 driven by favorable factors like reservoir levels, sowing season, and government support. Positive outlook for...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Mahindra and Mahindra - Operationally in Line; Healthy Margin Expansion

MM reported an in-line operating performance in 3QFY25. EBITDA margin expanded 160bp YoY to 14.6% (est. 14.2%) led by improved mix.

Motilal Oswal