Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The six Malaysian banks have healthy capital adequacy ratios, healthy credit quality and adequate NPL coverage; increased tourism should support GDP, positive cost of risk trends and loan growth demand</li>
<li>We like RHB, with its attractive post-provision profitability and sound cost of risk trends, whilst also trading on attractive multiples versus peers and on a relatively low PEG</li>
<li>We also like big-cap Maybank with its reasonable valuations; combined with a prospective earnings recovery due to contained risk costs, this could drive a re-rating, after lacklustre share returns</li>
</ul>


The six Malaysian banks have healthy capital adequacy ratios, healthy credit quality and adequate NPL coverage; increased tourism should support GDP, positive cost of risk trends and loan growth demand
We like RHB, with its attractive post-provision profitability and sound cost of risk trends, whilst also trading on attractive multiples versus peers and on a relatively low PEG
We also like big-cap Maybank with its reasonable valuations; combined with a prospective earnings recovery due to contained risk costs, this could drive a re-rating, after lacklustre share returns


Malaysian Banks Screener; RHB Bank Is Our Top Pick

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Press Metal Aluminium Holdin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Press Metal Aluminum Holdings (PMAH) aims to raise around US$233m via a primary placement.</li>
<li>The stock has been doing well on the back of buoyant Aluminum prices over the past few months.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Press Metal Aluminum Holdings (PMAH) aims to raise around US$233m via a primary placement.
The stock has been doing well on the back of buoyant Aluminum prices over the past few months.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Press Metals Aluminum Holdings Placement - Well Flagged Deal, Stock Has Done Well

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>Maybank reported 4Q21 NPAT of MYR 2.1 bn, improving MYR 372 mn (22.1%) linked quarter, reflecting revenue improvement across the board and a provision cut; </li>
<li>Net new NPLs aggregate MYR 2.3 bn, intimates an 83.4% QOQ increase in problem loans on an annualized basis; and  </li>
<li>Maybank was less than aggressive provisioning, and now an MYR 8.0 bn reserve shortfall exists today in its loan loss reserve or three quarters of NPAT. </li>
</ul>


Maybank reported 4Q21 NPAT of MYR 2.1 bn, improving MYR 372 mn (22.1%) linked quarter, reflecting revenue improvement across the board and a provision cut; 
Net new NPLs aggregate MYR 2.3 bn, intimates an 83.4% QOQ increase in problem loans on an annualized basis; and  
Maybank was less than aggressive provisioning, and now an MYR 8.0 bn reserve shortfall exists today in its loan loss reserve or three quarters of NPAT. 


Malayan Banking – Heightened Credit Risk

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; </li>
<li>Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and </li>
<li>BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. </li>
</ul>


BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; 
Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and 
BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. 


Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We look at OCBC's results as a guide, window on Malaysia credit metrics. The bank saw substantial deterioration here, affecting the Group as a whole. There are negative implications for Malaysia's banks, which have not yet reported results.

We look at OCBC's results as a guide, window on Malaysia credit metrics. The bank saw substantial deterioration here, affecting the Group as a whole. There are negative implications for Malaysia's banks, which have not yet reported results. 

Malaysia

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

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Maybank (MAY MK)

Malaysian Banks Screener; RHB Bank Is Our Top Pick

From our Malaysian banks screener report, we like RHB for its attractive post-provision returns and undemanding multiples, and Maybank for its...

Victor Galliano

Press Metals Aluminum Holdings Placement - Well Flagged Deal, Stock Has Done Well

Press Metal Aluminum Holdings (PMAH) aims to raise around US$233m via a primary placement. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM...

Sumeet Singh

Malayan Banking – Heightened Credit Risk

MAYBANK: Maybank reported QOQ 4Q21 NPAT increase of 22.1%, reflecting revenue improvement and a provision cut. NPLs accelerated while reserves...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deterioration In Malaysia

We look at OCBC's results as a guide, window on Malaysia credit metrics. The bank saw substantial deterioration here, suggesting even greater risk...

Daniel Tabbush

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