Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

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<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
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The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

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Back on the 17 May, after ARA Asset Management <a href="https://ara.listedcompany.com/newsroom/ARAPress_Release_SMBC0Joins-ARAasStrategicShareholder_17052021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a $500mn round of equity financing from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, I reiterated a BUY on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straits-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15745:1" rel="noopener">Straits Trading (STRTR SP)</a> in <a href="https://skr.ma/TcDY5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Straits Trading: ARA's Pre-IPO Funding From SMBC</a>.
Based on the <a href="https://ara.listedcompany.com/misc/circulars/ARA-Scheme_Document_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> value of ARA in 2017 when it was taken private, and its then-AUM, ARA was potentially worth upwards of S$6bn. This in turn assigned a value of S$1.3bn for STR's stake in ARA, ~30% above its then-current market cap.
That was pretty close to the mark.
As discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/fJECF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-cayman-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK)</a> has now all but sealed the takeover of ARA in a US$5.2bn deal.
For its part, STR will pocket US$845.3mn (S$1.14bn) - in cash &amp; ESR scrip - from the transaction.
STR's shares have gained 13% as I type. 
More below the fold. 
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Back on the 17 May, after ARA Asset Management announced a $500mn round of equity financing from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, I reiterated a BUY on Straits Trading (STRTR SP) in Straits Trading: ARA's Pre-IPO Funding From SMBC.
Based on the Scheme value of ARA in 2017 when it was taken private, and its then-AUM, ARA was potentially worth upwards of S$6bn. This in turn assigned a value of S$1.3bn for STR's stake in ARA, ~30% above its then-current market cap.
That was pretty close to the mark.
As discussed in ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management, ESR Cayman (1821 HK) has now all but sealed the takeover of ARA in a US$5.2bn deal.
For its part, STR will pocket US$845.3mn (S$1.14bn) - in cash &amp; ESR scrip - from the transaction.
STR's shares have gained 13% as I type. 
More below the fold. 


Straits Trading Cheap As ARA Asset Exposure Monetized

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straits-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15745:1" rel="noopener">Straits Trading (STRTR SP)</a> (STR) has a 22.06% stake in ARA Asset Management, after adding 1.1% in <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/R706A%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=627835" target="_blank" rel="noopener">May</a> of last year for S$30.2mn. There is talk of IPO'ing ARA, some four years after it was taken private.  STR's stake in ARA, based on that stake increase, is worth ~60% of its current market cap. Yet that figure is likely conservative based on the increase in ARA's AUM. 
Yesterday ARA <a href="https://ara.listedcompany.com/newsroom/ARAPress_Release_SMBC0Joins-ARAasStrategicShareholder_17052021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a $500mn round of equity financing from SMBC. With SMBC joining as a strategic shareholder, this has all the hallmarks of an imminent IPO.
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STR is cheap. Either major shareholder Tecity takes the company private; or you buy the company as an indirect investment into an expected listing of ARA. 
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As always, more below the fold.
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Straits Trading (STRTR SP) (STR) has a 22.06% stake in ARA Asset Management, after adding 1.1% in May of last year for S$30.2mn. There is talk of IPO'ing ARA, some four years after it was taken private.  STR's stake in ARA, based on that stake increase, is worth ~60% of its current market cap. Yet that figure is likely conservative based on the increase in ARA's AUM. 
Yesterday ARA announced a $500mn round of equity financing from SMBC. With SMBC joining as a strategic shareholder, this has all the hallmarks of an imminent IPO.


STR is cheap. Either major shareholder Tecity takes the company private; or you buy the company as an indirect investment into an expected listing of ARA. 


As always, more below the fold.


Straits Trading: ARA's Pre-IPO Funding From SMBC

Back on the 14 August 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straits-trading-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15745:1" rel="noopener">Straits Trading (STRTR SP)</a> announced its <a href="https://straitstrading.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20200814_171924_S20_ETSA0B9VKYMLZIBA.2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1H20 result</a>s, which showed a 62.9/87.5% decline yoy in EBITDA and EPS, due in part to lower average tin prices and lower sales quantity of refined tin; and the knock on-effects from COVID-19 to its hospitality operations.
Tin prices are up 38% since the March low and 10% since  30 June. There are signs of life in the hospitality front, with talk of bubble travel between countries, which may indicate operational losses have troughed.
But of more interest is STR's 22.06% stake in ARA Asset Management. STR added 1.1% in <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/R706A%20Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=627835" target="_blank" rel="noopener">May</a> of this year at for S$30.2mn. There is talk of IPO'ing ARA, some four years after it was taken private.
STR's stake in ARA, based on its recent stake increase, is worth around the same as its current market cap - indicating the market is assigning almost zero value for the remaining real estate, hospitality segment, and the 54.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-smelting-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14425:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Smelting Corp (SMELT MK)</a>, and stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntec-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1" rel="noopener">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>.
Illiquid, depressed pricing, with a potential major catalyst in the pipeline, this appears ripe for Tecity to take the company private.
As always, more below the fold.

Back on the 14 August 2020, Straits Trading (STRTR SP) announced its 1H20 results, which showed a 62.9/87.5% decline yoy in EBITDA and EPS, due in part to lower average tin prices and lower sales quantity of refined tin; and the knock on-effects from COVID-19 to its hospitality operations.
Tin prices are up 38% since the March low and 10% since  30 June. There are signs of life in the hospitality front, with talk of bubble travel between countries, which may indicate operational losses have troughed.
But of more interest is STR's 22.06% stake in ARA Asset Management. STR added 1.1% in May of this year at for S$30.2mn. There is talk of IPO'ing ARA, some four years after it was taken private.
STR's stake in ARA, based on its recent stake increase, is worth around the same as its current market cap - indicating the market is assigning almost zero value for the remaining real estate, hospitality segment, and the 54.8% stake in Malaysia Smelting Corp (SMELT MK), and stake in Suntec REIT (SUN SP).
Illiquid, depressed pricing, with a potential major catalyst in the pipeline, this appears ripe for Tecity to take the company private.
As always, more below the fold.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13490" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13490:1">Mulpha International (MIT MK)</a> is trading at 0.21x P/B. It's 22.7% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9390" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9390:1">Aveo Group (AOG AU)</a> (itself trading at 0.6x P/B, a three and half year low) is worth 133% of Mulpha's market cap. Aveo just announced a <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180824/pdf/43xnyydl8kpkf6.pdf" target="_blank">strategic review</a> after receiving various proposal from investors. 
Aveo trades at a steep discount to peers, due to the presence of Mulpha's large stake restricting institutional ownership; the fact Mulpha and Aveo share the same chairman, intimating connected transactions; the ongoing class action; or a combination of all three. 
Corporate activity has also recently slowed. The last entitlement (rights) offer was conducted in 2013; while the last major <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160818/pdf/439dny78n9pfp2.pdf" target="_blank">institutional placement</a> occurred in August 2016. And given the prevailing P/B, the quantum of the recent buyback falls short of the strong management commitment shown in August last year.
Aveo is a company that would be better served being privatised by Mulpha.
Further afield, Mulpha should also be privatised by the controlling Lee family. 
Aveo trades around US$2mn/day. Mulpha is smaller - US$135mn mkt cap &amp; liquidity of US$0.3k - if that doesn't float your boat, look away now.

Mulpha International (MIT MK) is trading at 0.21x P/B. It's 22.7% stake in Aveo Group (AOG AU) (itself trading at 0.6x P/B, a three and half year low) is worth 133% of Mulpha's market cap. Aveo just announced a strategic review after receiving various proposal from investors. 
Aveo trades at a steep discount to peers, due to the presence of Mulpha's large stake restricting institutional ownership; the fact Mulpha and Aveo share the same chairman, intimating connected transactions; the ongoing class action; or a combination of all three. 
Corporate activity has also recently slowed. The last entitlement (rights) offer was conducted in 2013; while the last major institutional placement occurred in August 2016. And given the prevailing P/B, the quantum of the recent buyback falls short of the strong management commitment shown in August last year.
Aveo is a company that would be better served being privatised by Mulpha.
Further afield, Mulpha should also be privatised by the controlling Lee family. 
Aveo trades around US$2mn/day. Mulpha is smaller - US$135mn mkt cap &amp; liquidity of US$0.3k - if that doesn't float your boat, look away now.

Malaysia

Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad smelts tin concentrates and tin bearing materials as well as produces refined tin metal and by-products.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides authorized warehouse for tin metal.

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Malaysia Smelting Corp (SMELT MK)

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Straits Trading: ARA's Pre-IPO Funding From SMBC

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A Case for Privatising Aveo

Mulpha International (MIT MK) is trading at 0.21x P/B. It's 22.7% stake in Aveo Group (AOG AU) (itself trading at 0.6x P/B, a three and half year...

David Blennerhassett

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