New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The upcoming FY26 results season will see record operating earnings (EBITDAF) reported by three of the four generator-retailers, with Genesis Energy (GNE) just missing out (on our numbers).</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN), Mercury (MCY), and Meridian Energy (MEL) have all had very strong years, in sharp contrast to the weak FY25.</li><li>Renewable generation topped 95% in FY26 across the main four generators, lowering thermal generation costs and avoiding the need for demand response payments to NZAS.</li></ul>

The upcoming FY26 results season will see record operating earnings (EBITDAF) reported by three of the four generator-retailers, with Genesis Energy (GNE) just missing out (on our numbers).Contact Energy (CEN), Mercury (MCY), and Meridian Energy (MEL) have all had very strong years, in sharp contrast to the weak FY25.Renewable generation topped 95% in FY26 across the main four generators, lowering thermal generation costs and avoiding the need for demand response payments to NZAS.

Electricity Sector Renewables Powered Results—FY26 Preview

<ul><li>Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.</li><li>MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.</li><li>History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.</li></ul>

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

<ul><li>Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.</li><li>Regulatory uncertainty looms, but is not expected to materially affect valuations, with MCY rated OUTPERFORM and others NEUTRAL.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is considering a new peaking plant, with discussions progressing positively to extend the Rankine units' operational life.</li></ul>

Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.Regulatory uncertainty looms, but is not expected to materially affect valuations, with MCY rated OUTPERFORM and others NEUTRAL.Genesis Energy (GNE) is considering a new peaking plant, with discussions progressing positively to extend the Rankine units' operational life.

Power Points Watts in the Bank—July 2025

<ul><li>May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.</li><li>The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.</li><li>Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.</li></ul>

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

<ul><li>Hydrology remains a concern, with storage levels improving slightly, but Meridian Energy faced another challenging month.</li><li>The electricity sector offers defensive earnings and dividend growth, with Mercury rated as OUTPERFORM while others remain NEUTRAL.</li><li>The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive decision anticipated.</li></ul>

Hydrology remains a concern, with storage levels improving slightly, but Meridian Energy faced another challenging month.The electricity sector offers defensive earnings and dividend growth, with Mercury rated as OUTPERFORM while others remain NEUTRAL.The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive decision anticipated.

Power Points Hydro Holding Pattern—May 2025

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Electricity Sector Renewables Powered Results—FY26 Preview

The upcoming FY26 results season will see record operating earnings (EBITDAF) reported by three of the four generator-retailers, with Genesis...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days. MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Watts in the Bank—July 2025

Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Hydro Holding Pattern—May 2025

The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive...

Forsyth Barr

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