New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's FY25 financial result saw the lowest Underlying EBITDAF since FY02 due to tough hydro and wind generation conditions and a sizable bad debt.</li><li>Contact Energy is set to acquire Manawa Energy, with no final dividend declared, reflecting the upcoming transition.</li><li>Manawa Energy's development pipeline expanded modestly, with opportunities for better performance under new ownership.</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's FY25 financial result saw the lowest Underlying EBITDAF since FY02 due to tough hydro and wind generation conditions and a sizable bad debt.Contact Energy is set to acquire Manawa Energy, with no final dividend declared, reflecting the upcoming transition.Manawa Energy's development pipeline expanded modestly, with opportunities for better performance under new ownership.

Manawa Energy - Exiting With a Whimper — FY25 Result

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy to acquire Manawa Energy, with the deal price at a significant premium to its recent share price.</li><li>MNW shareholders will receive NZ$1.12 cash and 0.583 CEN shares per share, implying a value of NZ$6.36 per share—a +31% premium to the pre-announcement close.</li><li>The necessary remaining steps before the takeover is finalized include an independent valuer's report, shareholder approval, and High Court approval.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy to acquire Manawa Energy, with the deal price at a significant premium to its recent share price.MNW shareholders will receive NZ$1.12 cash and 0.583 CEN shares per share, implying a value of NZ$6.36 per share—a +31% premium to the pre-announcement close.The necessary remaining steps before the takeover is finalized include an independent valuer's report, shareholder approval, and High Court approval.

Manawa Energy - Seeing Red—ComCom Clears CEN's Takeover

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's 4Q25 operating statistics closed out a difficult FY25 with continued low hydro inflows and calm conditions reducing hydro generation and wind offtake volumes.</li><li>FY25 earnings are expected towards the bottom end of the revised guidance range, with MNW rethinking the volumes it can safely contract at a fixed price.</li><li>The value of MNW shares remains tied to the possibility of a takeover by CEN, viewed as having a 50% chance currently.</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's 4Q25 operating statistics closed out a difficult FY25 with continued low hydro inflows and calm conditions reducing hydro generation and wind offtake volumes.FY25 earnings are expected towards the bottom end of the revised guidance range, with MNW rethinking the volumes it can safely contract at a fixed price.The value of MNW shares remains tied to the possibility of a takeover by CEN, viewed as having a 50% chance currently.

Manawa Energy - 4Q25 Op Stats—Trockenflaute

<ul><li>Challenging hydro and wind conditions have led Manawa Energy (MNW) to lower its FY25 EBITDAF guidance for the second time this year.</li><li>While the downgrade is unwelcome, it appears to be a one-off, with rising wholesale electricity prices supporting MNW's long-term earnings.</li><li>The downgrade also underscores the risks of selling too much electricity at fixed prices without adequate backup, suggesting MNW's safe sellable volumes in a market lacking strong thermal generation may be lower than previously thought. </li></ul>

Challenging hydro and wind conditions have led Manawa Energy (MNW) to lower its FY25 EBITDAF guidance for the second time this year.While the downgrade is unwelcome, it appears to be a one-off, with rising wholesale electricity prices supporting MNW's long-term earnings.The downgrade also underscores the risks of selling too much electricity at fixed prices without adequate backup, suggesting MNW's safe sellable volumes in a market lacking strong thermal generation may be lower than previously thought. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.</li><li>MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.</li><li>History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.</li></ul>

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days.MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce Lake Pukaki option.History suggests the stocks will perform well post-investor day.

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Manawa Energy - Exiting With a Whimper — FY25 Result

Manawa Energy's FY25 financial result saw the lowest Underlying EBITDAF since FY02 due to tough hydro and wind generation conditions and a sizable...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - Seeing Red—ComCom Clears CEN's Takeover

The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy to acquire Manawa Energy, with the deal price at a significant premium to its recent share...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - 4Q25 Op Stats—Trockenflaute

Manawa Energy's 4Q25 operating statistics closed out a difficult FY25 with continued low hydro inflows and calm conditions reducing hydro...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - Guidance Trickles Down

Challenging hydro and wind conditions have led Manawa Energy (MNW) to lower its FY25 EBITDAF guidance for the second time this year.

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector Tell Me More, Tell Me More—Investor Days Preview

Three of the four generator-retailers will be hosting investor days in the space of five working days. MEL to focus on Te Rere Hau and introduce...

Forsyth Barr

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