New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) FY24 EBITDAF guidance upgrade (+11% at the midpoint) is encouraging, notwithstanding three of the four factors cited for the upgrade are more one-off in nature and come from favourable 2H24 operating conditions.</li><li>The most positive aspect of the upgrade is the indication MNW has been able to reduce operating costs, which is particularly encouraging given the current inflationary environment.</li><li>We have increased our target price +25cps (+6.7%) to NZ$3.95 with the earnings upgrades also enabling a dividend increase. </li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) FY24 EBITDAF guidance upgrade (+11% at the midpoint) is encouraging, notwithstanding three of the four factors cited for the upgrade are more one-off in nature and come from favourable 2H24 operating conditions.The most positive aspect of the upgrade is the indication MNW has been able to reduce operating costs, which is particularly encouraging given the current inflationary environment.We have increased our target price +25cps (+6.7%) to NZ$3.95 with the earnings upgrades also enabling a dividend increase. 

Manawa Energy - Trading Energises Earnings

<ul><li>Capex guidance cuts and more projects were the main features of Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result.</li><li>Revised capex guidance effectively reversed the capex increases from six months ago, enabling us to reverse our divided reductions and lift our target price +13cps (+3.7%) to NZ$3.60.</li><li>The result itself was a moderate miss with revenue lower than estimated. </li></ul>

Capex guidance cuts and more projects were the main features of Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result.Revised capex guidance effectively reversed the capex increases from six months ago, enabling us to reverse our divided reductions and lift our target price +13cps (+3.7%) to NZ$3.60.The result itself was a moderate miss with revenue lower than estimated. 

Manawa Energy - Capex Reversal — 1H24 Result

<ul><li>We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior half year.</li><li>The 1H24 result should be close to a normal result for MNW, with hydro generation only +3% above average.</li><li>Whilst we are expecting a strong 1H24 result relative to a weak 1H23 performance, MNW's challenges remain building a development pipeline and being cost competitive relative to its peers. </li></ul>

We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior half year.The 1H24 result should be close to a normal result for MNW, with hydro generation only +3% above average.Whilst we are expecting a strong 1H24 result relative to a weak 1H23 performance, MNW's challenges remain building a development pipeline and being cost competitive relative to its peers. 

Manawa Energy - Having Hydro Helps—1H24 Op Stats, Preview

<ul><li>MNW delivers strong FY23 result, aided by 4Q23: FY23 EBITDAF of NZ$137m (in line with expectations) was a good outcome given the 1H23 result</li><li>FY24 outlook muted by ACOT ending, aided by strong early hydro generation: FY24 guidance of NZ$120m to NZ$140m was unchanged</li><li>Delivering development is the key — but it won't be easy: The key for MNW remains new development. One of its issues is scale, making generation portfolio growth a key priority</li></ul>

MNW delivers strong FY23 result, aided by 4Q23: FY23 EBITDAF of NZ$137m (in line with expectations) was a good outcome given the 1H23 resultFY24 outlook muted by ACOT ending, aided by strong early hydro generation: FY24 guidance of NZ$120m to NZ$140m was unchangedDelivering development is the key — but it won't be easy: The key for MNW remains new development. One of its issues is scale, making generation portfolio growth a key priority

Manawa Energy: Creeping Capex — FY23 Result

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity market.</li><li>Strong 4Q23 hydro generation has boosted FY23 EBITDAF earnings to the top of MNW's NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m guidance range</li><li>FY24 has been impacted by increasing development costs and lower ASX futures prices, reducing FY24 earnings expectations</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity market.Strong 4Q23 hydro generation has boosted FY23 EBITDAF earnings to the top of MNW's NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m guidance rangeFY24 has been impacted by increasing development costs and lower ASX futures prices, reducing FY24 earnings expectations

Manawa Energy: Wholesale Hits to Earnings

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Manawa Energy - Trading Energises Earnings

Nevertheless, we still view MNW as expensive relative to most of its peers and it is still some way off reaching a final investment decision on its...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - Capex Reversal — 1H24 Result

Capex guidance cuts and more projects were the main features of Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result. Revised capex guidance effectively reversed...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - Having Hydro Helps—1H24 Op Stats, Preview

We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Creeping Capex — FY23 Result

Manawa Energy (MNW) delivered a strong FY23 result, its first full year result as a stand-alone generator, courtesy of above average 4Q23 hydro...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Wholesale Hits to Earnings

Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity...

Forsyth Barr

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