New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and current worryingly low hydro lake levels.</li><li>The general conference consensus was that limited gas supply—which has not yet been fully replaced by new generation—is the main cause of the current challenges.</li><li>Nevertheless, political and regulatory risk is currently heightened, and the conference underlined that there will be changes to the market coming. </li></ul>

The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and current worryingly low hydro lake levels.The general conference consensus was that limited gas supply—which has not yet been fully replaced by new generation—is the main cause of the current challenges.Nevertheless, political and regulatory risk is currently heightened, and the conference underlined that there will be changes to the market coming. 

Electricity Sector - Upstream Problematic Downstream

<ul><li>Submissions on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) reinforce our view that, on paper, Contact Energy's (CEN) acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) passes the legal test for clearance.</li><li>However, negative sector sentiment remains a strong headwind. We still see a 50/50 chance whether the acquisition is cleared.</li><li>The ComCom's next move will be critical. If it publishes a Statement of Unresolved Issues (SoUI), the chances of the acquisition clearing diminishes.</li></ul>

Submissions on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) reinforce our view that, on paper, Contact Energy's (CEN) acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) passes the legal test for clearance.However, negative sector sentiment remains a strong headwind. We still see a 50/50 chance whether the acquisition is cleared.The ComCom's next move will be critical. If it publishes a Statement of Unresolved Issues (SoUI), the chances of the acquisition clearing diminishes.

<ul><li>Recent share price declines have increased the sector’s attractiveness, particularly Meridian Energy (MEL), which we upgrade to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>The sector is resilient to economic downturns and trade wars, offering both growth and a strong dividend yield. 2025 has started with unprecedented low hydro inflows, particularly in the South Island, where storage has fallen -37% since late 2024.</li><li>South Island inflows are the lowest since records started being kept and North Island inflows are not far behind. </li></ul>

Recent share price declines have increased the sector’s attractiveness, particularly Meridian Energy (MEL), which we upgrade to OUTPERFORM.The sector is resilient to economic downturns and trade wars, offering both growth and a strong dividend yield. 2025 has started with unprecedented low hydro inflows, particularly in the South Island, where storage has fallen -37% since late 2024.South Island inflows are the lowest since records started being kept and North Island inflows are not far behind. 

Power Points - Getting Very Thirsty—March 2025

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) has raised several concerns about Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW), prompting us to lower the probability of clearance to 50%.</li><li>Consequently, we reduce our MNW target price by -27cps (-4.2%) to NZ$6.15 and downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL (from OUTPERFORM).</li><li>In January 2025, inflows and hydro storage levels continued to decline, triggering thermal generation, surging wholesale electricity prices, and pushing ASX futures higher.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) has raised several concerns about Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW), prompting us to lower the probability of clearance to 50%.Consequently, we reduce our MNW target price by -27cps (-4.2%) to NZ$6.15 and downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL (from OUTPERFORM).In January 2025, inflows and hydro storage levels continued to decline, triggering thermal generation, surging wholesale electricity prices, and pushing ASX futures higher.

Power Points - ComCom Raises Clearance Concerns—Feb 2025

<ul>
<li>2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and reiterate the buying opportunity in Mercury (MCY).</li>
<li>The likely inclusion of CEN at the expense of MCY in the MSCI Standard Index has seen CEN’s share price pop and MCY's drop.</li>
<li>2024 was dominated by two events that will shape the sector in the years ahead. </li>
</ul>


2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and reiterate the buying opportunity in Mercury (MCY).
The likely inclusion of CEN at the expense of MCY in the MSCI Standard Index has seen CEN’s share price pop and MCY's drop.
2024 was dominated by two events that will shape the sector in the years ahead. 


Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Electricity Sector - Upstream Problematic Downstream

The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Your Move ComCom

The ComCom's next move will be critical. If it publishes a Statement of Unresolved Issues (SoUI), the chances of the acquisition clearing diminishes.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Getting Very Thirsty—March 2025

Recent share price declines have increased the sector’s attractiveness, particularly Meridian Energy (MEL), which we upgrade to OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - ComCom Raises Clearance Concerns—Feb 2025

The Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) has raised several concerns about Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Index Opportunities — January 2025

2024 ended with index considerations influencing short-term share prices, such that we have downgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to NEUTRAL and...

Forsyth Barr

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