New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we upgrade CEN to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM) and downgrade MEL to UNDERPERFORM (from NEUTRAL)</li><li>ASX futures appear mispriced given movements in underlying drivers</li><li>Tale of two islands as weather gods bless MCY and GNE, hang CEN out to dry</li></ul>

Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we upgrade CEN to NEUTRAL (from UNDERPERFORM) and downgrade MEL to UNDERPERFORM (from NEUTRAL)ASX futures appear mispriced given movements in underlying driversTale of two islands as weather gods bless MCY and GNE, hang CEN out to dry

Power Points: Future Expectations Too High — February 2023

<ul><li>December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditions</li><li>Looking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developments</li><li>We see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery</li></ul>

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditionsLooking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developmentsWe see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

<ul><li>Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highs</li><li>Valuations ease, but sector remains over-valued</li><li>Wind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers</li></ul>

Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highsValuations ease, but sector remains over-valuedWind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

<ul><li>Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium prices</li><li>MEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply more</li><li>Big earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact</li></ul>

Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium pricesMEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply moreBig earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Dividend the big disappointment, rising capex outlook the main issue</li><li>Weak 1H23 EBITDAF consistent with expectations, no change to FY23 EBITDAF guidance of NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m</li><li>Development pipeline grows, but still lots of work to do</li></ul>

Dividend the big disappointment, rising capex outlook the main issueWeak 1H23 EBITDAF consistent with expectations, no change to FY23 EBITDAF guidance of NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0mDevelopment pipeline grows, but still lots of work to do

Manawa Energy: Dividend Sticker Shock — 1H23 Result

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Power Points: Future Expectations Too High — February 2023

Following relative share price weakness over the past two months in Contact Energy (CEN) and share price strength in Meridian Energy (MEL) we...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA]...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

The story of November 2022 was the record high 97% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources, well north of the previous record of...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

NZAS is set to remain open as the focus on decarbonisation means the economics of hydro-backed aluminium smelters have never looked better; We have...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Dividend Sticker Shock — 1H23 Result

Manawa Energy's (MNW) inaugural 1H23 result delivered weak earnings (as expected), but an even weaker dividend as the stay-in-business...

Forsyth Barr

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