New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior half year.</li><li>The 1H24 result should be close to a normal result for MNW, with hydro generation only +3% above average.</li><li>Whilst we are expecting a strong 1H24 result relative to a weak 1H23 performance, MNW's challenges remain building a development pipeline and being cost competitive relative to its peers. </li></ul>

We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior half year.The 1H24 result should be close to a normal result for MNW, with hydro generation only +3% above average.Whilst we are expecting a strong 1H24 result relative to a weak 1H23 performance, MNW's challenges remain building a development pipeline and being cost competitive relative to its peers. 

Manawa Energy - Having Hydro Helps—1H24 Op Stats, Preview

<ul><li>MNW delivers strong FY23 result, aided by 4Q23: FY23 EBITDAF of NZ$137m (in line with expectations) was a good outcome given the 1H23 result</li><li>FY24 outlook muted by ACOT ending, aided by strong early hydro generation: FY24 guidance of NZ$120m to NZ$140m was unchanged</li><li>Delivering development is the key — but it won't be easy: The key for MNW remains new development. One of its issues is scale, making generation portfolio growth a key priority</li></ul>

MNW delivers strong FY23 result, aided by 4Q23: FY23 EBITDAF of NZ$137m (in line with expectations) was a good outcome given the 1H23 resultFY24 outlook muted by ACOT ending, aided by strong early hydro generation: FY24 guidance of NZ$120m to NZ$140m was unchangedDelivering development is the key — but it won't be easy: The key for MNW remains new development. One of its issues is scale, making generation portfolio growth a key priority

Manawa Energy: Creeping Capex — FY23 Result

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity market.</li><li>Strong 4Q23 hydro generation has boosted FY23 EBITDAF earnings to the top of MNW's NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m guidance range</li><li>FY24 has been impacted by increasing development costs and lower ASX futures prices, reducing FY24 earnings expectations</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity market.Strong 4Q23 hydro generation has boosted FY23 EBITDAF earnings to the top of MNW's NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m guidance rangeFY24 has been impacted by increasing development costs and lower ASX futures prices, reducing FY24 earnings expectations

Manawa Energy: Wholesale Hits to Earnings

<ul><li>Dividend the big disappointment, rising capex outlook the main issue</li><li>Weak 1H23 EBITDAF consistent with expectations, no change to FY23 EBITDAF guidance of NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0m</li><li>Development pipeline grows, but still lots of work to do</li></ul>

Dividend the big disappointment, rising capex outlook the main issueWeak 1H23 EBITDAF consistent with expectations, no change to FY23 EBITDAF guidance of NZ$127.5m to NZ$140.0mDevelopment pipeline grows, but still lots of work to do

Manawa Energy: Dividend Sticker Shock — 1H23 Result

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) 2Q23 operating statistics were accompanied by a -NZ$16m (-11%) FY23 EBITDAF guidance downgrade, predominantly due to soft hydro generation and elevated development costs</li><li>Our forecast changes reflect revised guidance, stronger wholesale prices and higher inflation</li><li>1H23 result will be soft, first time MNW dividend will be the key focus</li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) 2Q23 operating statistics were accompanied by a -NZ$16m (-11%) FY23 EBITDAF guidance downgrade, predominantly due to soft hydro generation and elevated development costsOur forecast changes reflect revised guidance, stronger wholesale prices and higher inflation1H23 result will be soft, first time MNW dividend will be the key focus

Manawa Energy: Developing Future Earnings Hurts FY23

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

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Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Manawa Energy - Having Hydro Helps—1H24 Op Stats, Preview

We are expecting Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result to be a step-up on 1H23 aided by hydro generation volumes that are up +13% on a difficult prior...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Creeping Capex — FY23 Result

Manawa Energy (MNW) delivered a strong FY23 result, its first full year result as a stand-alone generator, courtesy of above average 4Q23 hydro...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Wholesale Hits to Earnings

Manawa Energy's (MNW) updated FY23 and FY24 guidance highlights the cost of developing options and the vagaries of the wholesale electricity...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Dividend Sticker Shock — 1H23 Result

Manawa Energy's (MNW) inaugural 1H23 result delivered weak earnings (as expected), but an even weaker dividend as the stay-in-business...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy: Developing Future Earnings Hurts FY23

Manawa Energy's (MNW) 2Q23 operating statistics were accompanied by a -NZ$16m (-11%) FY23 EBITDAF guidance downgrade, predominantly due to soft...

Forsyth Barr

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