Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As expected, a SAMR investigation depressed top-line growth and profitability in Q226 </li>
<li>Management offered no forward guidance on earnings call, but hinted at headwinds to come</li>
<li>We believe it may take a few quarters for Trip.com to regain momentum</li>
</ul>


As expected, a SAMR investigation depressed top-line growth and profitability in Q226 
Management offered no forward guidance on earnings call, but hinted at headwinds to come
We believe it may take a few quarters for Trip.com to regain momentum


Trip.com Q226 Results | Slow Top-Line & Adj EBITDA Met Low Expectations | No Quick Fix, in Our View

<ul>
<li>Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15</li>
<li>Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period</li>
<li>Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble</li>
</ul>


Trip.com will finally report Q2 results after the US close on Tuesday, September 15
Earlier investigation, now concluded, was likely a drag on growth &amp; earnings in period
Management commentary could indicate pace of recovery from Trip.com's latest stumble


Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> disclosed a privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at US$3.35 (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend), a 39.6% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The special dividend represents the majority of the proceeds from the sale of the top thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba and Ant Group for US$925 million. </li>
<li>The offer is final. The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer. </li>
</ul>



Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) disclosed a privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at US$3.35 (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend), a 39.6% premium to the last close. 
The special dividend represents the majority of the proceeds from the sale of the top thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba and Ant Group for US$925 million. 
The offer is final. The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer. 


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer

<ul>
<li>Total US border crossings in July 2026 were up just 0.6% Y/Y (and down 5% vs July 2024)</li>
<li>July 2026 crossings by aircraft were down over 3% Y/Y, and down 2% Y/Y in US West</li>
<li>The figures from peak Summer travel period seem to confirm sluggish US tourism activity</li>
</ul>


Total US border crossings in July 2026 were up just 0.6% Y/Y (and down 5% vs July 2024)
July 2026 crossings by aircraft were down over 3% Y/Y, and down 2% Y/Y in US West
The figures from peak Summer travel period seem to confirm sluggish US tourism activity


Latest US Customs & Border Protection Data Appear to Confirm Sluggish US Tourism Activity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions</li>
<li>A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far</li>
<li>Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year</li>
</ul>


In early December 2022, Chinese authorities relaxed many Covid-19 restrictions
A year in, the recovery in Chinese tourism activity has disappointed, so far
Similarly, most Chinese tourism stocks have performed poorly over the last year


12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

Hong Kong

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is a multinational hospitality and management group that owns and operates luxury hotels, resorts, and residences across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company also engages in hotel and residences branding, management, and property development activities, offering luxury accommodations, fine dining, and wellness facilities. It was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Trip.com Q226 Results | Slow Top-Line & Adj EBITDA Met Low Expectations | No Quick Fix, in Our View

Trip.com reported Q226 results that mostly met lowered expectations after SAMR's investigation into the platform's anti-competitive practices. We...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q226 Earnings Preview | Impact of Investigation | Accommodation Segment | Q3 Guidance Key

Trip.com will finally report Q2 results on Tuesday evening (US time). Expectations for Q2 are low but forward guidance could indicate how quickly...

Tracking Traffic

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer

The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer.

Arun George

Latest US Customs & Border Protection Data Appear to Confirm Sluggish US Tourism Activity

The latest figures for US border crossings suggest international travel into and out of the US remains sluggish. The figures show little growth...

Tracking Traffic

12 Months In, China's Tourism Recovery & Performance of China Tourism Shares Have Both Disappointed

A year after most of China's pandemic-related travel restrictions were eased, we look back at the recovery in Chinese tourism activity in 2023.

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)