Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air</li>
<li>By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y</li>
<li>Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient</li>
</ul>


Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air
By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y
Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient


December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After an upturn in October-November, pace of outbound air travel softened in December</li>
<li>But domestic air activity continued to strengthen in December -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>Continued strength of outbound air travel demand could imply emphasis on frugality</li>
</ul>


After an upturn in October-November, pace of outbound air travel softened in December
But domestic air activity continued to strengthen in December -- a positive surprise
Continued strength of outbound air travel demand could imply emphasis on frugality


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | December Outbound Pace Softer, but Domestic Activity Strengthened

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.</li>
<li>Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, via an all-scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. </li>
</ul>


Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.
Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), via an all-scrip Offer.
Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. 


Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004, as MSCI cites Indonesia's persistent ‘fundamental investability issues’.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004, as MSCI cites Indonesia's persistent ‘fundamental investability issues’.
Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: JCNC's "Outperformance" As MSCI Flags Indo's Investability Issues

Hong Kong

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is a multinational hospitality and management group that owns and operates luxury hotels, resorts, and residences across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company also engages in hotel and residences branding, management, and property development activities, offering luxury accommodations, fine dining, and wellness facilities. It was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

For the month of Jan 2026, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$8bn. The average premium for these new deals...

David Blennerhassett

December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | December Outbound Pace Softer, but Domestic Activity Strengthened

The surprisingly strong upturn in Chinese outbound in October-November did not continue in December, unfortunately. But domestic air travel...

Tracking Traffic

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Glencore Musings

Ahead of the 5th Feb PUSU deadline, Rio's UK investors are (reportedly) pushing the Glencore merger to maintain its UK listing. Still, IF the DLC...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: JCNC's "Outperformance" As MSCI Flags Indo's Investability Issues

MSCI's review is a material overhang. Yet, even absent this index review fallout, I'd expect JCNC to benefit from an ongoing business review...

David Blennerhassett

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