Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 27th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> announced an Offer for 88.04%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.  </li>
<li>MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND's privatisation. And then some.  </li>
<li>Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to  complete in 2026.</li>
</ul>


On the 27th October, Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) announced an Offer for 88.04%-held Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), after MAND concurrently announced the partial sale of OCB to Alibaba.  
MAND will pocket US$925mn from the sale. The privatisation will set Matheson back ~US$500mn. Alibaba is ostensibly funding MAND's privatisation. And then some.  
Last week Matheson announced it will undertake a US$250mn buyback, which is expected to  complete in 2026.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value is around its highest-ever level.</li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>A weak Indonesian rupiah is likely a factor. Still, JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. A takeover from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is idealistic.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value is around its highest-ever level.
The simple ratio of JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC.
A weak Indonesian rupiah is likely a factor. Still, JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. A takeover from parent Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is idealistic.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.</li>
<li>Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. </li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.
Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on Minor International (MINT TB), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).
While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. 


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

<ul>
<li>According to Sing Tao, two PRC firms and a mainland bank have formed a consortium to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>'s 33-storey Three Exchange Square.</li>
<li>This "news" is straight out of left field. For its part, HKL said the market rumour is pure speculation.</li>
<li>HKL's P/B of 0.24x is closing in on its all-time low of 0.21x during the depths of Covid. </li>
</ul>


According to Sing Tao, two PRC firms and a mainland bank have formed a consortium to acquire Hongkong Land (HKL SP)'s 33-storey Three Exchange Square.
This "news" is straight out of left field. For its part, HKL said the market rumour is pure speculation.
HKL's P/B of 0.24x is closing in on its all-time low of 0.21x during the depths of Covid. 


Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

On Jardine Matheson's Latest Buyback

Matheson has recovered since my last note. I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying outright. Management have proactive with HKL and now...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short

Jardine Cycle & Carriage's premium to NAV is not justifiable. I'd look to reverse the stub here - Short JCNC, Long Astra.

David Blennerhassett

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

Reportedly two PRC firms and a mainland bank intend to acquire Hongkong Land''s Three Exchange Square. HKL said the rumor is pure speculation....

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

On Jardine Matheson's Latest Buyback

Matheson has recovered since my last note. I'd still be setting up the stub here. Or buying outright. Management have proactive with HKL and now...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short

Jardine Cycle & Carriage's premium to NAV is not justifiable. I'd look to reverse the stub here - Short JCNC, Long Astra.

David Blennerhassett

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

Hongkong Land: Exchange Square Sale Would Be BIG News. (If True)

Reportedly two PRC firms and a mainland bank intend to acquire Hongkong Land''s Three Exchange Square. HKL said the rumor is pure speculation....

David Blennerhassett