External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Maple Leaf Cement Factory / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) conducted FY26 analyst briefing today to discuss business performance and future outlook.</li><li>Management expects local cement industry sales to grow by 7.5% in FY27, in line with recent trends, with the government’s Apna Ghar housing programme potentially providing further upside.</li><li>We maintain buy stance on MLCF. The company is currently trading at FY27E PE of 6.1x.</li></ul>

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) conducted FY26 analyst briefing today to discuss business performance and future outlook.Management expects local cement industry sales to grow by 7.5% in FY27, in line with recent trends, with the government’s Apna Ghar housing programme potentially providing further upside.We maintain buy stance on MLCF. The company is currently trading at FY27E PE of 6.1x.

Topline Flash Note: Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) - Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

<ul><li>Management stated that the total royalty provision currently stands at approximately Rs6bn.</li><li>Management expects the Pioneer Cement (PIOC) amalgamation to be reflected in MLCF’s financials from Dec 2026 or Mar 2027 quarter.</li><li>MLCF’s fuel mix currently comprises approximately 60% local coal, 20% pet coke, and 40% alternative fuels.</li></ul>

Management stated that the total royalty provision currently stands at approximately Rs6bn.Management expects the Pioneer Cement (PIOC) amalgamation to be reflected in MLCF’s financials from Dec 2026 or Mar 2027 quarter.MLCF’s fuel mix currently comprises approximately 60% local coal, 20% pet coke, and 40% alternative fuels.

Topline Flash Note: Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) - Annual General Meeting Key Takeaways

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs32.4bn in 1QFY27 against profit of Rs27.8bn in 1QFY26, up by 16% YoY and 16% QoQ.</li><li>The YoY increase in earnings is primarily driven by increase in net sales amid higher retention prices.</li><li>Net sales are expected to reach Rs143bn in 1QFY27, reflecting growth of 25% YoY and 14% QoQ.</li></ul>

Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs32.4bn in 1QFY27 against profit of Rs27.8bn in 1QFY26, up by 16% YoY and 16% QoQ.The YoY increase in earnings is primarily driven by increase in net sales amid higher retention prices.Net sales are expected to reach Rs143bn in 1QFY27, reflecting growth of 25% YoY and 14% QoQ.

Pakistan Cements - Profitability Likely to Be Up by 16% YoY in 1QFY27; Led by Higher Local Volumetric Sales and Retention Prices

Event-Driven

<ul><li>MLCF and PIOC have both notified board meetings scheduled for September 02, 2026. In our view, the meetings could potentially be related to the proposed merger, given that both companies have scheduled their meetings on the same day.</li><li>We have conducted our analysis to estimate the potential range of the swap ratio that could be considered between MLCF and PIOC.</li><li>Our analysis is based on the valuation framework prescribed under the SECP Guidelines for Mergers and Amalgamations, which outlines various valuation methodologies that may be used to determine a fair and reasonable share exchange ratio.</li></ul>

MLCF and PIOC have both notified board meetings scheduled for September 02, 2026. In our view, the meetings could potentially be related to the proposed merger, given that both companies have scheduled their meetings on the same day.We have conducted our analysis to estimate the potential range of the swap ratio that could be considered between MLCF and PIOC.Our analysis is based on the valuation framework prescribed under the SECP Guidelines for Mergers and Amalgamations, which outlines various valuation methodologies that may be used to determine a fair and reasonable share exchange ratio.

Pakistan Cement: MLCF & PIOC Possible Merger: We Expect SWAP Ratio in the Range of 2.1-2.6

<ul><li>MLCF announced its 4QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS: Rs4.07), up 17% YoY and 141% QoQ.</li><li>Earnings came higher than industry’s expectations due to higher gross margins.</li><li>We maintain our Buy stance on MLCF, which is currently trading at a FY27E P/E of 7.0x.</li></ul>

MLCF announced its 4QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS: Rs4.07), up 17% YoY and 141% QoQ.Earnings came higher than industry’s expectations due to higher gross margins.We maintain our Buy stance on MLCF, which is currently trading at a FY27E P/E of 7.0x.

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – 4QFY26 EPS at Rs4.07, FY26 EPS at Rs11.34 (Earnings Higher Than Industry’s Expectations)

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Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF PA)

Topline Flash Note: Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) - Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) conducted FY26 analyst briefing today to discuss business performance and future outlook. Management expects local cement...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) - Annual General Meeting Key Takeaways

Management stated that the total royalty provision currently stands at approximately Rs6bn. Management expects the Pioneer Cement (PIOC)...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cements - Profitability Likely to Be Up by 16% YoY in 1QFY27; Led by Higher Local Volumetric Sales and Retention Prices

Topline Cement Universe is expected to post profitability of Rs32.4bn in 1QFY27 against profit of Rs27.8bn in 1QFY26, up by 16% YoY and 16%...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cement: MLCF & PIOC Possible Merger: We Expect SWAP Ratio in the Range of 2.1-2.6

MLCF and PIOC have both notified board meetings scheduled for September 02, 2026. In our view, the meetings could potentially be related to the...

Topline Securities

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) – 4QFY26 EPS at Rs4.07, FY26 EPS at Rs11.34 (Earnings Higher Than Industry’s Expectations)

MLCF announced its 4QFY26 result today, wherein, the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs4.2bn (EPS: Rs4.07), up 17% YoY and 141%...

Topline Securities

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