Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> is a certain deletion from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries</a>' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp</a>'s. It's very close.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Following their inclusion in the F&amp;O segment in November, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) appear to be sure-shot inclusions to the NIFTY Index in March.

Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is a certain deletion from the index. Britannia Industries' average free-float market cap is less than 0.004% below Hero Motocorp's. It's very close.
Passive trackers need to trade between 3.7-11.8 days of ADV on the stocks. The impact increases significantly to between 8.4-21.8 days of delivery volume to trade on the stocks.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The investing community at large, or Mr. Market, is in a dilemma as to whether consumption has slowed down despite the enormous potential of young demographics.</li><li>Our exhaustive channel checks across India suggest that while rural consumption's recovery is apparent, the slowdown in urban consumption is weighing on consumer companies' growth momentum.</li><li>Rural recovery will gradually gain strength over the next four consecutive quarters, as there are more positives than negatives that will aid consumption-led growth in rural areas.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The investing community at large, or Mr. Market, is in a dilemma as to whether consumption has slowed down despite the enormous potential of young demographics.Our exhaustive channel checks across India suggest that while rural consumption's recovery is apparent, the slowdown in urban consumption is weighing on consumer companies' growth momentum.Rural recovery will gradually gain strength over the next four consecutive quarters, as there are more positives than negatives that will aid consumption-led growth in rural areas.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Rurban Pulse - Decoding Consumer Demand

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report a high-single-digit revenue growth of 9% YoY, mainly driven by price hikes</li><li>At an aggregate level, we anticipate revenue and EBITDA growth of 9% and 1%, respectively, in 3QFY25</li><li>However, profitability is expected to decline by 6% due to negative operating leverage and gross margin pressures (excluding the liquor segment).</li></ul>Content is an external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report a high-single-digit revenue growth of 9% YoY, mainly driven by price hikesAt an aggregate level, we anticipate revenue and EBITDA growth of 9% and 1%, respectively, in 3QFY25However, profitability is expected to decline by 6% due to negative operating leverage and gross margin pressures (excluding the liquor segment).Content is an external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer (3QFY25 Results Preview): Challenges Persist

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marico’s Q2FY2025 performance was largely in line with expectations, with consolidated revenues growing by 8% y-o-y (India biz volumes grew 5%) and OPM declining marginally by 48 bps y-o-y to 19.6%, adjusted PAT grew by ~9% y-o-y.</li><li>Management expects volume growth to sequentially improve in the quarters ahead.</li><li>Revenue growth will improve to double digits with pricing growth expected to further improve in H2. Company eyes double-digit growth in FY2025. Input cost pressure was higher than expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico’s Q2FY2025 performance was largely in line with expectations, with consolidated revenues growing by 8% y-o-y (India biz volumes grew 5%) and OPM declining marginally by 48 bps y-o-y to 19.6%, adjusted PAT grew by ~9% y-o-y.Management expects volume growth to sequentially improve in the quarters ahead.Revenue growth will improve to double digits with pricing growth expected to further improve in H2. Company eyes double-digit growth in FY2025. Input cost pressure was higher than expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Marico's 2QFY25 results were marginally above our estimates, driven by better-than-expected operating profits</li><li>Domestic volume growth of 5% during 2QFY25 was in line with expectations and was supported by the following factors: a) Parachute's secondary volume offtake grew in high single digits, aided by market share gains and accelerated conversion from loose to branded products, especially in an inflationary copra environment</li><li>b) Saffola reported flat volumes as the pricing cycle for the brand turned favourable after eight quarters</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico's 2QFY25 results were marginally above our estimates, driven by better-than-expected operating profitsDomestic volume growth of 5% during 2QFY25 was in line with expectations and was supported by the following factors: a) Parachute's secondary volume offtake grew in high single digits, aided by market share gains and accelerated conversion from loose to branded products, especially in an inflationary copra environmentb) Saffola reported flat volumes as the pricing cycle for the brand turned favourable after eight quartersContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico - High RM Costs to Impact Margins in 2HFY25

India

Marico Limited manufactures consumer products and services in the beauty and wellness space. The Company is known for its presence in the following categories: Coconut Oil, Hair Oils, Anti-lice Treatment, Premium Refined Edible Oils and Fabric Care. Marico Limited is present in the Skin Care Services segment through Kaya Skin Clinics.

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Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Secure; Tight Among the Deletes

Zomato and JioFin should replace BPCL and Britannia in March. Hero Motors just avoids deletion for now. Passives need to trade 3.7-11.8x ADV (8.4...

Brian Freitas

Consumer: Rurban Pulse - Decoding Consumer Demand

The investing community at large, or Mr. Market, is in a dilemma as to whether consumption has slowed down despite the enormous potential of young...

HDFC Securities

Consumer (3QFY25 Results Preview): Challenges Persist

We expect our consumer coverage to report a high-single-digit revenue growth of 9% YoY, mainly driven by price hikes. At an aggregate level, we...

HDFC Securities

Marico Ltd - Decent Q2

Marico’s Q2FY2025 performance was largely in line with expectations, with consolidated revenues growing by 8% y-o-y (India biz volumes grew 5%)

Sharekhan

Marico - High RM Costs to Impact Margins in 2HFY25

Domestic volume growth of 5% during 2QFY25 was in line with expectations and was supported by the following factors: a) Parachute's secondary...

HDFC Securities

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