Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited / Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.</li>
<li>Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Marico to BUY from ADD with TP of Rs 650 (45x FY26 EPS, 10% premium to its 5 year Average PE) and move it to high conviction list within staples pack as worst is behind us wr.t muted volume growth, pricing correction, loss related to new business and transient currency headwinds</li><li>We expect Marico to see Revenue/ Ebitda / PAT Cagr of 6/13/13% respectively over FY23-26 as 1) Domestic business fires on all cylinders –(a) Parachute (35% of domestic sales) expected to see mid-single volume growth on back of market share gains and conversion from unbranded to branded, as we have always seen in inflationary copra environment</li><li>Moreover, we expect double digit revenue growth in FY25 on back of mid to single digit price hikes (b) Saffola edible oil (20% of domestic sales) expected to see volume led mid single digit value growth in FY25, courtesy pricing correction anniversarian (down 20% in FY24) (c) VAHO – easing competitive intensity in BOP segment along with uptick in mid to premium end segment shall drive much better outcomes</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We upgrade Marico to BUY from ADD with TP of Rs 650 (45x FY26 EPS, 10% premium to its 5 year Average PE) and move it to high conviction list within staples pack as worst is behind us wr.t muted volume growth, pricing correction, loss related to new business and transient currency headwindsWe expect Marico to see Revenue/ Ebitda / PAT Cagr of 6/13/13% respectively over FY23-26 as 1) Domestic business fires on all cylinders –(a) Parachute (35% of domestic sales) expected to see mid-single volume growth on back of market share gains and conversion from unbranded to branded, as we have always seen in inflationary copra environmentMoreover, we expect double digit revenue growth in FY25 on back of mid to single digit price hikes (b) Saffola edible oil (20% of domestic sales) expected to see volume led mid single digit value growth in FY25, courtesy pricing correction anniversarian (down 20% in FY24) (c) VAHO – easing competitive intensity in BOP segment along with uptick in mid to premium end segment shall drive much better outcomesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico (4QFY24): Well Oiled for Growth. Upgrade to BUY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen in Q3FY24</li><li>While urban markets continue to outgrow rural markets, price rollbacks on softening commodity inflation have aided the narrowing of the gap</li><li>Nonetheless, we expect a gradual recovery in CY2024, led by (1) moderating inflation, (2) government spending, (3) a positive outlook for rabi crop harvest, (4) conducive consumer pricing across categories, and (5) expectation of normal monsoon</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen in Q3FY24While urban markets continue to outgrow rural markets, price rollbacks on softening commodity inflation have aided the narrowing of the gapNonetheless, we expect a gradual recovery in CY2024, led by (1) moderating inflation, (2) government spending, (3) a positive outlook for rabi crop harvest, (4) conducive consumer pricing across categories, and (5) expectation of normal monsoonContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, Alco Bev & QSR (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Challenging demand environment

FMCG/Alco Bev & QSR - Challenging Demand Environment

India

Marico Limited manufactures consumer products and services in the beauty and wellness space. The Company is known for its presence in the following categories: Coconut Oil, Hair Oils, Anti-lice Treatment, Premium Refined Edible Oils and Fabric Care. Marico Limited is present in the Skin Care Services segment through Kaya Skin Clinics.

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Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new adds...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

SBI Cards is an expected DEL for NIFTY Next 50 in Sep 24 and BSE 100 in Jun 24. Jio Financial is an expected ADD for both BSE 100 and BSE 200 in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Marico (4QFY24): Well Oiled for Growth. Upgrade to BUY

We expect Marico to see Revenue/ Ebitda / PAT Cagr of 6/13/13% respectively over FY23-26 as 1) Domestic business fires on all cylinders –(a)...

HDFC Securities

FMCG, Alco Bev & QSR (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Challenging demand environment

Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen...

HDFC Securities

FMCG/Alco Bev & QSR - Challenging Demand Environment

Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen...

HDFC Securities

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