Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.</p>

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

<p>Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.</p>

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Retail current value sales grow by 6% in 2017 to reach THB33.3 billion</li><li>Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) promotes Thailand for MICE and medical tourism</li><li>Luxury hotels sees slower retail current value sales growth compared with 2016</li><li>Central Plaza Hotel leads luxury hotels in 2016</li><li>A 3% retail value CAGR at constant 2017 prices is expected over the forecast period to reach THB39.0 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Retail current value sales grow by 6% in 2017 to reach THB33.3 billionTourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) promotes Thailand for MICE and medical tourismLuxury hotels sees slower retail current value sales growth compared with 2016Central Plaza Hotel leads luxury hotels in 2016A 3% retail value CAGR at constant 2017 prices is expected over the forecast period to reach THB39.0 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Thailand

<ul><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) posts 5% current value growth in 2017, to reach JPY124.4 billion</li><li>Demand from the increasing number of foreign tourists leads to the rapid increase of luxury hotels (5-star plus)</li><li>International luxury hotel brands continue to lead luxury hotels (5-star plus) in 2016</li><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) to record a value CAGR of 7% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, to reach JPY172.7 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) posts 5% current value growth in 2017, to reach JPY124.4 billionDemand from the increasing number of foreign tourists leads to the rapid increase of luxury hotels (5-star plus)International luxury hotel brands continue to lead luxury hotels (5-star plus) in 2016Luxury hotels (5-star plus) to record a value CAGR of 7% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, to reach JPY172.7 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Japan

<ul class=""><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) records a retail sales decline of 2% to KRW593.0 billion in 2017</li><li>Marketing strategies targeting domestic consumers are more important in 2017</li><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) is the only category in luxury goods to record negative retail value growth in 2017</li><li>Hotel Shilla Co leads luxury hotels (5-star plus) in 2016 with a retail value share of 16%</li><li>Luxury hotels (5-star plus) is expected to record a healthy retail value CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach KRW730.4 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) records a retail sales decline of 2% to KRW593.0 billion in 2017Marketing strategies targeting domestic consumers are more important in 2017Luxury hotels (5-star plus) is the only category in luxury goods to record negative retail value growth in 2017Hotel Shilla Co leads luxury hotels (5-star plus) in 2016 with a retail value share of 16%Luxury hotels (5-star plus) is expected to record a healthy retail value CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach KRW730.4 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In South Korea

United States

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

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Marriott International (MAR US)

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector. Charts highlighted: AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH,...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Thailand

Retail current value sales grow by 6% in 2017 to reach THB33.3 billion Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) promotes Thailand for MICE and medical...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In Japan

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) posts 5% current value growth in 2017, to reach JPY124.4 billion Demand from the increasing number of foreign tourists...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Luxury Hotels (5-Star Plus) In South Korea

Luxury hotels (5-star plus) records a retail sales decline of 2% to KRW593.0 billion in 2017 Marketing strategies targeting domestic consumers are...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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