Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Marriott Vacations World / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported second quarter 2026 results marked by notable growth in contract sales and profitability, supported by strategic commercial initiatives and operational discipline.</li><li>Contract sales rose 22% year-over-year to $545 million, fueled largely by a 23% increase in volume per guest (VPG) to $4,477, driven by improvements in owner sales which grew 41% alongside a 33% lift in owner VPG.</li><li>These gains led to adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, a 6% increase from the prior year and above the midpoint of guidance.</li></ul>

Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported second quarter 2026 results marked by notable growth in contract sales and profitability, supported by strategic commercial initiatives and operational discipline.Contract sales rose 22% year-over-year to $545 million, fueled largely by a 23% increase in volume per guest (VPG) to $4,477, driven by improvements in owner sales which grew 41% alongside a 33% lift in owner VPG.These gains led to adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, a 6% increase from the prior year and above the midpoint of guidance.

Marriott Vacations’ $545 Million Sales Surge — Can The Momentum Last?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

<ul><li>Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported its first quarter 2026 results amid a period of significant transition and restructuring.</li><li>The company focused on improving profitability, cash flow, organizational realignment, and revenue growth initiatives, while also taking steps to reduce costs and monetize non-core assets.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA declined 16% year-over-year to $161 million, and contract sales decreased 2% to $411 million.</li></ul>

Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported its first quarter 2026 results amid a period of significant transition and restructuring.The company focused on improving profitability, cash flow, organizational realignment, and revenue growth initiatives, while also taking steps to reduce costs and monetize non-core assets.Adjusted EBITDA declined 16% year-over-year to $161 million, and contract sales decreased 2% to $411 million.

Marriott Vacations' $250 Million Asset Sale Plan: Can It Fund A Turnaround?

<ul><li>Marriott Vacations Worldwide's recent quarterly performance has showcased a mixed bag of operational challenges and strategic initiatives poised for a longer-term turnaround.</li><li>On the surface, the company saw a decline in contract sales by 4% year-over-year for the third quarter, driven primarily by weaknesses in key markets such as Orlando and Maui.</li><li>These markets accounted for a notable portion of the company's operational shortfall.</li></ul>

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's recent quarterly performance has showcased a mixed bag of operational challenges and strategic initiatives poised for a longer-term turnaround.On the surface, the company saw a decline in contract sales by 4% year-over-year for the third quarter, driven primarily by weaknesses in key markets such as Orlando and Maui.These markets accounted for a notable portion of the company's operational shortfall.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide: Inside The Asia-Pacific Expansion Story- What It Means & How It Could Reshape Growth!

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

United States

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a worldwide developer, marketer, seller and manager of vacation ownership resorts and vacation club, destination club and exchange programs, principally under the "Marriott" and "Ritz-Carlton" brands and trademarks, which we license from Marriott International and Ritz-Carlton.

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Marriott Vacations World (VAC US)

Marriott Vacations’ $545 Million Sales Surge — Can The Momentum Last?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported second quarter 2026 results marked by notable growth in contract sales and profitability, supported by...

Baptista Research

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Marriott Vacations' $250 Million Asset Sale Plan: Can It Fund A Turnaround?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported its first quarter 2026 results amid a period of significant transition and restructuring. The company...

Baptista Research

Marriott Vacations Worldwide: Inside The Asia-Pacific Expansion Story- What It Means & How It Could Reshape Growth!

Marriott Vacations Worldwide's recent quarterly performance has showcased a mixed bag of operational challenges and strategic initiatives poised...

Baptista Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

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