Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/EZx9j" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched</a>, I saw <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.</li>
<li>That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manila-electric-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3527:1" rel="noopener">Manila Electric Company (MER PM)</a>, that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.</li>
<li>By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.</li>
</ul>


In StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched, I saw First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.
That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held Manila Electric Company (MER PM), that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.
By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.


First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here

<ul>
<li>MBK has made a legally binding bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>. Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.</li>
<li>Given the share price decline, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm (NUF AU)</a>'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.</li>
</ul>


MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.

Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

<ul>
<li>Via 49.9%-held MPIC, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange</li>
<li>Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmci-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8026:1" rel="noopener">DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)</a>. Listing is expected in July.</li>
<li>I see First Pac's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. </li>
</ul>


Via 49.9%-held MPIC, First Pacific Co (142 HK) is spinning off Maynilad, a provider of water and wastewater services in the Greater Manila Area, on the Philippine Stock Exchange
Maynilad will tentatively have a market cap of US$2.7bn. Other key investors include DMCI Holdings (DMC PM) and Marubeni Corp (8002 JP). Listing is expected in July.
I see First Pac's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade. 


StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>“In the next 50 years... we won’t give a thought to selling those [Japanese trading companies].... Japan’s record has been extraordinary.” (Warren Buffett)</li>
<li>In this insight, we provide detailed comparisons of the five major Japanese trading companies and five major Korean holdcos/trading companies. </li>
<li>Japanese trading companies have higher points for market cap, ROE, DPS increase, and shares cancellation. Korean holdcos have higher points for dividend yield, debt/equity ratio, ROIC, and valuations. </li>
</ul>


“In the next 50 years... we won’t give a thought to selling those [Japanese trading companies].... Japan’s record has been extraordinary.” (Warren Buffett)
In this insight, we provide detailed comparisons of the five major Japanese trading companies and five major Korean holdcos/trading companies. 
Japanese trading companies have higher points for market cap, ROE, DPS increase, and shares cancellation. Korean holdcos have higher points for dividend yield, debt/equity ratio, ROIC, and valuations. 


Shareholder Returns of Japanese Trading Companies Invested By Buffett Vs Top Korean Trading/Holdcos

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Maynilad Water Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)</a>  (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)  (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Growth Hasn’t Always Been as Strong

Japan

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

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Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)

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Sumeet Singh

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