Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marui-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13604:1" rel="noopener">Marui Group (8252 JP)</a> was a long-suffering Japanese retailer with generally sub-standard locations and "different" customer base, and much of its income came from consumer credit. </li>
<li>Since a decade ago, helped by the rise of foreign tourism income, Marui has been redeveloping itself. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a>'s insights are a great help to understanding the background. </li>
<li>They are aiming at non-stuff retailing. Friday saw earnings, cancellation of the yutai program, a slight div hike, and an increase in the already large buyback program. It's interesting!</li>
</ul>



Marui Group (8252 JP) was a long-suffering Japanese retailer with generally sub-standard locations and "different" customer base, and much of its income came from consumer credit. 
Since a decade ago, helped by the rise of foreign tourism income, Marui has been redeveloping itself. Michael Causton's insights are a great help to understanding the background. 
They are aiming at non-stuff retailing. Friday saw earnings, cancellation of the yutai program, a slight div hike, and an increase in the already large buyback program. It's interesting!


Marui (8252 JP) - Increases Size of Delayed-Start Buyback, Cuts Yutai

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.</li>
<li>We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. </li>
<li>Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.</li>
</ul>


J-Front Retailing, a Japanese department store operator, will announce full-year results on April 11.
We expect FY2/23 guidance to be more optimistic as Japan normalises post COVID. 
Pent up demand for luxury goods to drive recovery of department stores. J-Front is still trading below book value.


J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marui-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13604:1" rel="noopener">Marui Group (8252 JP)</a> is increasingly ethereal, shifting further away from selling merchandise through tenants. </li>
<li>While seen as a shop building operator, Marui is still true to its service origins as a consumer finance business.</li>
<li>Now even its shop buildings are increasingly devoted to non-stuff with the company aiming for 70% of tenancies to be selling things other than merchandise by 2025.</li>
</ul>



Marui Group (8252 JP) is increasingly ethereal, shifting further away from selling merchandise through tenants. 
While seen as a shop building operator, Marui is still true to its service origins as a consumer finance business.
Now even its shop buildings are increasingly devoted to non-stuff with the company aiming for 70% of tenancies to be selling things other than merchandise by 2025.


Marui: 70% of Tenants to Be Non-Merchandise

Japan

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

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Marui Group (8252 JP)

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Marui (8252 JP) - Increases Size of Delayed-Start Buyback, Cuts Yutai

Marui Group (8252) had a 2.5month delay to the start of its buyback program, but announced a revision in size (upward) Friday with earnings. It...

Travis Lundy

J-Front (3086) | Recent Datapoints Point to High-End Shoppers Loosening the Purse Strings

J-Front Retailing is a beneficiary of COVID normalisation and eventual resumption of inbound tourism. The restructuring and cost cuts bode well for...

Mark Chadwick

Marui: 70% of Tenants to Be Non-Merchandise

Marui gets negative press for being a mall operator in an e-commerce age but as well as a great finance business, it is making its buildings into...

Michael Causton

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